Linking upper-tropospheric dynamics to precipitation changes and extremes in the MENA region: insights from idealized experiments

Future climate change is projected to substantially alter the precipitation patterns across subtropical regions of the planet. These precipitation changes are largely attributed to modifications of upper-tropospheric dynamics. Idealized climate simulations with stabilized global warming levels (GWLs) provide a controlled framework to investigate these responses in detail. In this study, we focus on the MENA region, a pronounced climate change hotspot, which is expected to be extensively affected by the shifting precipitation patterns. We identify the changes in the precipitation patterns and extremes for different global warming levels, and we link these changes to changes in the upper tropospheric dynamics. Specifically, we diagnose shifts in convergence regions and their associated changes in the large-scale vertical motion in the troposphere. In addition, we study changes in the Rossby wave patterns and amplitude, and the associated transient eddy activity.  Finally, we explore how these dynamical changes modulate extreme precipitation events over MENA, thereby clarifying the physical drivers of the region’s emerging hydroclimatic risks under warming.