GIS-Based Mapping of Wildfire Risk and Resilience in Cultural Landscapes

Wildfires, once largely episodic disturbances in human–environment systems, have become increasingly severe and disruptive due to climate change and anthropogenic pressures such as rising temperatures and prolonged droughts. Rural settlements are particularly vulnerable, especially those within Cultural Landscapes in Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) areas, where flammable vegetation coexists with expanding urban development and zones valued for heritage, tourism, and recreation. In these contexts, the convergence of ecological and socio-cultural exposure heightens wildfire risk, making the enhancement of resilience an essential factor for the long-term preservation and survival of these communities.

This study - interdisciplinary in nature - proposes a GIS-based framework to assess wildfire risk in WUI areas, with a specific focus on Cultural Landscapes and the explicit integration of resilience. The methodology integrates climate hazard datasets -such as wildfire occurrence derived from the MCD64A1.061 MODIS Burned Area Monthly Global product (resolution 500 m) and vegetation water stress indicators obtained from the MOD13Q1.061 Terra Vegetation Indices 16-Day Global product (250 m resolution) - with projected Fire Weather Index (FWI) scenarios from Copernicus (2020). These datasets are integrated with established WUI typologies (Schug et al. 2023) and complemented by on-site documentation of resilience features collected using structured checklists and evaluated using multicriteria analysis. The methodology was applied to two contrasting Cultural Landscapes—the wooden churches in Trondheim, which include a stave church (Norway), and the Romanesque–Mudéjar churches in Seville (Spain)—providing insights across different climatic and cultural contexts.

Model outputs included 30 m resolution raster maps of climatic hazards and WUI vulnerability, along with vector maps of Cultural Heritage assets and their capacity to withstand and recover from wildfires. Analysis of wildfires from 2005–2025 indicates that fire occurrence in both regions is linked to socio-demographic changes, depopulation, and reduced grazing during the 1970s–1990s, which promoted shrub growth and uncontrolled vegetation. Climate risk indicators such as FWI show regional differences: it effectively identifies extremely hazardous summer periods in southern Spain but underestimates risk in cold climates like Norway, limiting public awareness. In Norway, a higher proportion of WUI intermix areas dominated by forests, shrubs, and well-connected wetlands is observed, presenting a higher wildfire vulnerability due to dense fuel, whereas in southern Spain, WUI areas dominated by grasslands are mainly threatened by high temperatures and dry conditions. These differences highlight the context-specific importance of resilience measures that should be considered in risk models: in Norway, nature-based strategies such as firebreaks, clearing, and prescribed burns are priorities, while in Spain, monitoring and mobilization of human resources are crucial, as fuel control alone may be insufficient. Vegetation indices such as NDVI and NDMI can complement FWI in cold regions like Norway, supporting risk awareness and early warning.

The study provides a framework for combining resilience and geospatial hazard data, supporting spatially explicit assessments of wildfire risk. It informs evidence-based strategies, context-specific interventions, and the development of resilience-support frameworks, namely early warning systems, nature-based solutions, and human-centred measures, which facilitates a more effective wildfire management and sustainable preservation of Cultural Landscapes.