The Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Spatiotemporal Variations in Vegetation Coverage in the Northwest Plain Region of Shandong Province, China

Against the backdrop of escalating global climate change and human activities, vegetation cover dynamics, as a vital ecological indicator, have profound implications for ecosystem protection, making its monitoring an imperative for sustainable management. The Northwest Plain Region of Shandong Province, a vital agricultural and economic zone in China, experiences vegetation dynamics that significantly influence regional climate regulation and water resource conservation. By integrating normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with climatic and anthropogenic data, trend analysis, partial correlation, and GeoSHAP were used to comprehensively assess the spatiotemporal evolution and key driving factors of vegetation cover in the Northwest Plain of Shandong Province (2000–2024). The findings indicate an overall upward trend in vegetation cover, particularly in areas with concentrated human activities. Climatic factors, such as evaporation and temperature, exhibit a positive correlation with vegetation growth, while land use changes emerge as one of the key drivers influencing vegetation dynamics. The findings offer a scientific foundation for ecological protection and land management in the Northwest Plain of Shandong and similar regions, supporting informed decision-making for effective vegetation restoration and conservation strategies.