Modeling multi-actor flood resilience strategies in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

Climate change has become a critical global issue, significantly affecting runoff formation and flow regimes, thereby increasing the frequency of flooding. The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is particularly affected due to fluctuating Mekong River flows and extreme weather events. Despite the challenges of living in a flood-prone environment, local communities have shown remarkable flood resilience capacity in managing floods. This study simulates how farmers and government agencies improve and maintain systematic flood resilience using an Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). Cho Moi District, An Giang Province, is taken as a case study, as it represents a region with successful flood resilience under the South Vam Nao Project. The ABM features two primary agent types: 113 farmers, categorized by income level (high, medium, and low income), who vary in their capacity and knowledge to implement flood resilience measures; and the local and central governments, who act as political influencers capable of initiating large-scale engineering interventions. The model aims to quantify cumulative economic losses before, during, and after flood events based on different levels of applied flood resilience measures. Farmers decide whether to live with tolerable flood depths or take actions such as building temporary structures or elevating properties. The model also examines the impact of the government’s large-scale engineering projects, including high- and low-dike systems, as well as other infrastructure. This study presents a valuable simulation for assessing dynamic flood resilience across multiple flood events over extended periods, as well as testing flood resilience scenarios for future resilience potentials. The findings have potential applications to other real-world cases.

Keywords: Agent-Based Modeling, flood resilience measures, engineering measures, economic loss simulation, South Vam Nao scheme.