From Retrospective to Proactive: Integrating Seasonal Weather Forecasts with Erosion Modelling to Optimize Soil Conservation

Soil erosion represents one of the most critical environmental threats to the sustainability of agricultural systems, particularly in Mediterranean regions where strong seasonality and extreme precipitation events intensify soil degradation. Despite advances in erosion modelling, current conservation planning typically relies on retrospective annual analysis of historical data. This approach often fails to capture intra-annual variability or anticipate upcoming critical periods of erosivity, limiting the effectiveness of adaptive management strategies. This study presents an innovative methodological framework that integrates seasonal meteorological forecasts (1 to 7 months lead time) into the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model. Utilizing the ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecasting system, we apply bias correction and statistical downscaling techniques to predict both precipitation and erosivity (R factor) at the catchment scale. The methodology is applied to an olive grove catchment in Córdoba (Southern Spain). By conducting "hindcasting" simulations, we evaluate how the use of seasonal forecasts could have informed the strategic implementation of cover crops. The objective is to maximize soil protection by synchronizing vegetative cover with predicted high-erosivity periods, while simultaneously minimizing water competition between the cover crop and the main crop during forecasted dry years. To bridge the gap between scientific modelling and practical land management, this project also develops a set of open-source, interactive tools based on Jupyter Notebooks. These accessible tools allow technicians and decision-makers to process seasonal predictions and simulate erosion scenarios without requiring advanced programming skills. By enabling a shift from reactive to proactive management, this approach aligns with the European Soil Strategy and offers a scalable solution for preserving soil health in a changing climate.