The Hidden Shipping Carbon Cost of Extreme Weather: Unveiling the Hydrodynamic Penalty of Hurricane Evasion

Global maritime transport faces intensifying threats from climate change, yet current emission inventories typically overlook the environmental penalties associated with vessel navigation under extreme weather stress. Existing assessments often rely on averaged weather conditions, potentially underestimating the carbon footprint of active storm evasion maneuvers. This study proposes a conceptual framework to quantify these "hidden" carbon costs by linking vessel behavioral dynamics with hydrodynamic resistance analysis.

 

Utilizing high-resolution Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and meteorological reanalysis products, we investigate the operational responses of merchant vessels to tropical cyclones. The research focuses on identifying high-intensity navigation behaviors in hurricane-affected waters and assessing their theoretical impact on fuel consumption. By integrating vessel kinematics with wave resistance principles, the study highlights the variability of emissions across different evasion strategies.

 

This presentation will discuss the magnitude of these unaccounted emission variations and their implications for global carbon budgets. The findings emphasize the need to transition from static to dynamic emission inventories that account for the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, offering insights for developing climate-resilient shipping policies.