Communicating hydrological model calibration with toy examples

Informing robust decisions on flood risk and water resource management necessitates, among other factors, clearer communication of hydrological model uncertainty to non-specialist audiences. In this presentation, we demonstrate that simplified toy models, which abstract away systemic complexity, can serve as an accessible and effective tool for this purpose. As a specific case study, we illustrate how the choice of calibration scoring function shapes model behavior and associated uncertainty estimates. This foundational approach helps build the core intuition needed to effectively engage with more complex, real-world systems. Overall, we present a practical framework that supports experts articulate, and non-experts comprehend, the essential "why" and "how" of uncertainty in hydrological predictions.

Acknowledgements: This work was funded by the Research Center on Climate Change Impacts - University of Padova, Rovigo Campus - supported by Fondazione Cassa di Risparmio di Padova e Rovigo.