Urban-Rural Disparities and Predictors of Childhood Undernutrition across Africa

While urbanization is traditionally associated with economic growth and improved food security outcomes, many African countries have urbanized without concurrent economic growth, and, in turn, case studies suggest that as many as 70% of urban households are food insecure. Climate change stands to exacerbate these challenges, with, for example, increased instances of heat waves decreasing urban labor productivity and decreasing the ability of urban residents to purchase food. Despite these concerns, food security research has historically been rural-focused, and little research has systematically assessed how urban food security varies over time compared to rural food security. Indeed, food security is a highly under-researched and under-appreciated emerging urban risk across Africa. 

 

To enhance our understanding of this risk, this study examines national-level differences in childhood food insecurity between urban and rural areas across thirty-six African countries, using child stunting and wasting as indicators of chronic and acute undernutrition. Using Demographic Health Survey (DHS) data from the 1990s through 2020, we aggregate household-level observations to national urban and rural prevalence rates. We assess the influence of climatic, agricultural, economic, and demographic predictors on urban and rural stunting and wasting using a suite of generalized linear models. Preliminary results suggest that rates of rural and urban food insecurity are not only converging over time, but in some instances, urban food insecurity rates are higher than rural insecurity rates. These findings underscore the need for context-specific policies that address the distinct mechanisms driving urban and rural childhood undernutrition in rapidly urbanizing, low-income settings. This can help inform policy-making to respond more appropriately to childhood food insecurity crises across Africa.