Impacts of the Qosh Tepa Canal on Water Availability, Irrigated Land, and Farmer Employment in Kashkadarya Province, Uzbekistan: Implications for the Water–Food–Livelihood Nexus

This study quantitatively assesses the potential impacts of the Qosh Tepa Canal (QTC) construction and water diversion from the Amu Darya River on water availability, irrigated land, and farmer employment in Kashkadarya Province, Uzbekistan. Using a proportional impact assessment framework and scenario analysis, the research projects a progressive reduction in annual water availability by over 1.2 billion cubic meters (BCM) by 2030 under a 20% diversion scenario. This water scarcity is estimated to reduce irrigated land per farmer by approximately 19% and decrease farmer employment by up to 24% by 2030. The findings highlight critical challenges for the province’s irrigation-dependent agriculture, particularly for high-water-demand crops such as cotton and wheat, and underscore the broader socio-economic risks including rural livelihood destabilization and potential forced migration. The study emphasizes the urgent need for adaptive water management policies, crop diversification, and rural livelihood support to mitigate adverse effects on the water-food-livelihood nexus in the region.