,,- University of Ibadan, Faculty of Renewable Natural Resources, Social and Environmental Forestry, Ibadan, Nigeria (tadeonojobi@gmail.com)
Fires are very important proponents of disturbance within an ecosystem. The direct impacts of fires on the forests cause mortality in biodiversity such as birds, reptiles, and other organisms which may use the forests as a means of survival and livelihood. However, critical information on the level of forest fire risk in most forest ecosystem in Nigeria is scares. However, this study was designed to determine the susceptibility of Ise Forest Reserve to fire hazard.
Climatic variables such as temperature (°C), relative humidity (%), and precipitation (mm/day) for
1994, 2004, 2014, and 2024. were assessed using data obtained from NASA Power. Vegetation and moisture status was spatially obtained from Vegetation indices: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI). Landsat satellite imagery (1994–2024) to assess trends. Fire risk maps were developed, after observing the fuel load throughout the area. Areas of risk were identified and classified into high risk, moderate risk, and low risk areas.
Temperature increased steadily from 24.59 °C in 1994 to 25.34 °C in 2024. The precipitation of the study area had an overall decrease from 5.08mm/day in 1994 to 3.61mm/day in 2024. There was a slight increase in relative humidity from 67.6 in 1994 to 68.4% in 2024 which was an overall 1.26% change within the period. Further variations were observed between the years. NDVI, and NDWI revealed moderate to high tree vigour with the reserve occasionally experiencing regions with robust vegetative growth (SAVI > 0.5). However, the existence of low-SAVI patches highlights persistent issues with changing land use, degraded soil, or climate stresses.
The fuel load index showed that the reserve is largely low risk of fire ranging from 8 to 0. However, the reserve may generally be of moderate risk by 2034 since the area of high risk has increased.
This study highlights the increasing degradation on the fringe areas of the forest which may have adverse effects on the conserved Pan African Chimpanzee, which is conserved within the reseerve.
Keywords: Fire risk, fuel load, fire prediction, climate variations Ise forest reserve
How to cite: Akintunde-Alo, D. A., Ade-Onojobi, T. T., and Alegbeleye, O. M.: Fire Risk Assessment of Ise Forest Reserve, Ekiti State, Nigeria, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-642, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-642, 2026.
