Future changes in moisture sources in Central American region using high-resolution numerical simulations.

Global warming is causing changes in atmospheric dynamics that directly influence the hydrological cycle and its components. Moisture sources in the Central American region are not exempt from these changes. The research objective is to study future changes, by the middle and end of the 21st century, in moisture sources in three regions: Central America, Northwest South America, and the Orinoco region. For this purpose, a computational framework based on the regional models WRF-ARW and FLEXPART-WRF is used, and the outputs of the global model CESM2 are used as initial and boundary conditions (forcers). The periods used were: historical (1985 to 2014), mid-(2036 to 2065) and end-century (2071 to 2100), under the climate scenario SSP5-8.5. A Lagrangian methodology was used for the calculation of moisture sources and the analysis was carried out by seasons and annually. The moisture sources from Central America will increase, by the end-century, over that region and in the Caribbean Sea, with a greater increase in autumn, with a slight decrease to the west, over the Pacific coasts. In the North South American region, the greatest changes are also observed at the end-century, with a predominant increase in moisture sources over the region in winter and spring, which extends over the western Atlantic in summer and autumn. In the Orinoco region, the increase is observed, over the region itself in winter, while in the remaining seasons, extending towards the Central Atlantic.