FutureCISI: Spatially Explicit Projections of Critical Infrastructure Consistent with the Five SSPs

Europe’s critical infrastructure (CI), including energy, transport, communication, waste, and water infrastructure, is increasingly exposed to climate extremes, such as coastal flooding. Despite progress in addressing projections of extreme sea levels under climate change, future exposed population or exposed gross domestic product (GDP), limited research has attempted to address future risks on projected CI exposure. This study develops spatially explicit future scenarios for CI across five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for Europe and the United Kingdom in 2030, 2050, and 2100. Future infrastructure density (FutureCISI) is estimated using covariates associated with infrastructure development, including land cover, GDP, population, elevation, and inland water. The study evaluates four modelling approaches: a regression, a random forest, a convolutional neural network and a vision transformer. The projections are then used to assess changes in infrastructure exposure within the coastal floodplains across the SSPs and time frames.