Uncertainty in climate risk modelling

Climate risk assessments increasingly rely on the use of complex modelling chains that aim to simulate the interactions between climate-induced changes in hazard, vulnerability and exposure, often over large spatial domains. Due to this high level of complexity, evaluating the impact of uncertain input data and assumptions on modelling results, and therefore the overall model “credibility”, remains a very complex process. In this talk, I will advocate for the use of more structured approaches to quantify and attribute uncertainty in climate risk predictions, discuss the technical and cultural barriers to the adoption of these approaches, and provide some examples of how uncertainty and sensitivity insights can help inform the validation, improvement and use of models - both in academic research and the private sector.