Long-Term Socio-Economic Consequences of Groundwater Depletion Under Climate Change

Groundwater levels are declining in many regions of Europe, raising concerns about long-term water security. However, sparse temporally continuous groundwater observations constrain our ability to fully understand the impacts of groundwater depletion, especially its socio-economic consequences. According to a recent report by the European Environment Agency, groundwater supplied around 28% of agricultural water in European Union Member States during the twenty-first century. This dependence highlights the vulnerability of European agriculture and the societies it supports to ongoing reductions in groundwater availability. 

To understand the connection of socio-economic well-being, agriculture, and groundwater , we link a new 0.11° monthly water table depth anomaly dataset for Europe, spanning 1950 to the present, with existing European and global socio-economic datasets on crop production, crop prices and related agricultural indicators. This analysis enables us to assess how different crop types respond during periods of groundwater droughts. We examine long-term trends, identify crop-specific and region-specific sensitivities to groundwater decline, and evaluate how groundwater droughts propagate into market-level effects such as price fluctuations. Our results reveal distinct temporal and spatial patterns in both agricultural production and crop prices under groundwater stress, with some crops showing strong sensitivity to water table decline while others exhibit relative resilience. These findings provide a more nuanced understanding of the potential socio-economic risks associated with long-term groundwater depletion in a changing climate. Based on this study, we plan to provide recommendations for climate-resilient agricultural planning in regions facing persistent groundwater decline.