C4MIP Multi-Model Projections of Moisture Convergence and Extreme Precipitation Risks over East Asia

As extreme precipitation events intensify under climate change, understanding changes in precipitation patterns over East Asia has become increasingly important. While most future projections have relied on CMIP6 models, the Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) integrates terrestrial–oceanic carbon cycle feedback including nitrogen deposition and biogeochemical processes to enhance the reliability of climate projection. Despite these advancements, C4MIP has been underutilized in hydrological assessments for East Asia. In this study, we analyze precipitation patterns over East Asia during the historical period (1980–2014) using a C4MIP multi-model ensemble and evaluate model performance through comparison with reanalysis datasets. The C4MIP ensemble demonstrates improved skill in capturing seasonal and interannual patterns of vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (VIMFC), particularly during periods of pronounced moisture convergence and divergence. Under the SSP5–8.5-bgc scenario, projection indicate intensified moisture convergence and increased risks of extreme precipitation over southeastern China and North Korea. These findings provide a diagnostic evaluation of C4MIP's hydrological performance and offer valuable insights for future regional climate projections and adaptation strategies.

 

This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant RS-2024-00404042 and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (RS-2024-00343921).