Risk Assessment of Extreme Precipitation in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

This research investigates the occurrence of meteorological hazards and evaluates associated risks in Ulaanbaatar between 1990 and 2025. Over the study period, 564 hazardous weather incidents were identified, with rain-induced events representing the largest share (33.9%), followed by episodes of strong winds (22.0%). Using observations from four local meteorological stations together with ERA5-Land reanalysis data, we analyzed the temporal and spatial patterns of heavy precipitation and produced a detailed precipitation hazard map. The findings reveal a clear spatial gradient: the western and northwestern districts of Ulaanbaatar are more prone to intense precipitation, whereas the eastern and southern areas experience comparatively fewer such events. The outcomes of this study offer valuable insights for improving disaster preparedness, strengthening urban resilience, and informing future development and adaptation strategies in Mongolia’s capital city.