- 1Lab of Environmental Ecological Planning and Policy Studies, Department of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of Korea (poornimajayaratne@gmail.com)
- 2Lab of Environmental Ecological Planning and Policy Studies, Department of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of Korea
- 3OJEong Resilience Institute, Korea University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of Korea
Sri Lanka’s paddy-based agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability due to its dependence on monsoonal rainfall and temperature conditions. As an island nation, climate change poses growing risks to food security and rural livelihoods. This study examines projected changes in paddy yields across Sri Lanka using bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections.
A two-way fixed-effects regression framework was developed using district-level seasonal paddy yield data and corresponding climatic variables for the period 1990–2023. Diagnostic tests confirmed the suitability of the fixed-effects specification, with no significant multicollinearity detected. Future climate anomalies were derived from bias-corrected WorldClim v2.1 CMIP6 datasets using an ensemble of three global climate models (HadGEM3-GC31-LL, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and MIROC6) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. These anomalies were applied to historical yield–climate relationships to project paddy yields for 2021–2040, with log-normal bias correction applied to yield estimates.
Results indicate predominantly positive yield responses during Maha season across wet and intermediate zones, with projected increases of approximately 10–17% in several districts. In contrast, Yala season yields show more mixed and frequently negative responses in dry-zone districts, with projected declines ranging from 3–10%. Differences between the two scenarios are relatively modest, directional impacts being consistent and variation mainly in magnitude.
Overall, the findings reveal seasonal and regional heterogeneity in climate impacts on paddy yields. This highlights the importance of targeted, region-specific adaptation strategies to strengthen the resilience of smallholder paddy systems, including the adoption of drought-tolerant rice varieties, improved irrigation management, and climate-informed agricultural planning.
Keywords: Sri Lanka, paddy yield, projections, fixed effects, resilience
Acknowledgement:
This research was supported by the Technology Development Project for Creation and Management of Ecosystem-Based Carbon Sinks (RS-2023-00218243) through KEITI, Ministry of Environment.
How to cite: Jayaratne, P., Jeon, S. W., and Sung, H. C.: Climate Change Impacts on Paddy Yields in Sri Lanka under CMIP6 Scenarios: Implications for Enhancing Smallholder Resilience, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9206, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9206, 2026.
