Compound Disaster Risk Analysis under Future SSP Scenarios

Compound disasters refer to situations in which a primary hazard directly or indirectly triggers secondary hazards, forming a chain of interconnected disaster processes. With the intensification of global warming in recent years, extreme weather events have become increasingly frequent, thereby increasing the likelihood of compound disaster occurrence. Against this background, this study aims to integrate the failure probabilities of multiple hazards under future climate scenarios using a reliability-based approach and to propose indicators applicable to compound disaster assessment.

The climate data used in this study are obtained from the Taiwan Climate Change Projection Information and Adaptation Knowledge Platform (TCCIP), which provides statistically downscaled CMIP6 simulation outputs sourced from the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). Analyses are conducted for three future periods, namely the near future (2021–2040), mid-term future (2041–2060), and far future (2080–2100), based on which future scenario rainfall events are generated.

Taking Jinshan District, New Taipei City, Taiwan, as a case study, this research evaluates the risks associated with different hazard types under future climate scenarios. The failure probabilities of individual hazards are subsequently integrated through reliability analysis to identify areas prone to compound disasters. The results are expected to provide a scientific basis for disaster prevention planning and risk governance by relevant authorities.