Predictive WEAP modeling for NEXUS management in the Naryn River basin (Kyrgyzstan)

The primary goal of hydrological modeling is to generate reliable forecasts of future changes in water resources. In the arid conditions of Central Asia, where irrigated agriculture demands significant water resources during summer, early forecasting is crucial for planning water allocation between upstream and downstream regions.

The WEAP model offers a flexible and user-friendly framework for addressing various water resource management challenges. It supports decision-makers and experts in constructing and selecting optimal solutions for water management. Accurate hydrological forecasts of water availability during the growing season are essential for effective water resource planning. National hydrometeorological services in Central Asia are adopting and adapting modern, effective methods for hydrological forecasting. The primary goal of developing a methodology for forecasting river water content in the Kyrgyz Republic, using the WEAP model, is to create a calculation algorithm, simulate a water management model, and implement this methodology into the practices of the Kyrgyz Republic's National Hydrometeorological Services. This approach will be applied to forecast water availability in the Naryn River during the growing season, monitor changes in the Toktogul Reservoir's water volumes, support hydroelectric power production, and facilitate agricultural irrigation. Advanced forecasts of low water availability during the growing season are vital for implementing preventive measures to ensure efficient water use by water and energy management organizations.

The WEAP model allows for the use of various scenarios, such as climatic ones, with a focus on the national level, while introducing various innovative technologies for irrigation and energy conservation in the upcoming years. This is significant for long-term planning in water management activities and the energy strategy of both the country and the region.