Deforestation-Driven Surface Warming and Heat Exposure in a Tropical Dry Forest District.

Deforestation-Driven Surface Warming and Heat Exposure in a Tropical Dry Forest District

Deforestation is widely understood as an important driver of local-scale climate warming in tropical regions, yet its consequences for human heat exposure and associated health risks remain poorly quantified at fine spatial scales. Forest cover regulates land surface temperature through canopy shading and evapotranspiration, suggesting that forest loss may amplify near-surface warming and intensify heat stress beyond background climate change. While global and regional studies have documented warming associated with deforestation, most analyses are conducted at coarse spatial scales and offer limited insight into district-level impacts relevant for human exposure. This gap is particularly evident in tropical dry deciduous forest regions, which experience pronounced seasonal heat stress and support populations heavily dependent on outdoor labor. In India, this type of landscape is widespread, yet fine-resolution assessments linking forest-cover change to heat exposure remain scarce.

This study proposes a district-level investigation of deforestation-driven warming and heat exposure in a district of Jharkhand, which is an ecologically stressed dry tropical forest region characterized by forest degradation and extreme summer temperatures. Forest-cover change since 2000 is quantified using Landsat-based Hansen Global Forest Change data, while land surface temperature patterns are examined using MODIS daytime LST observations. Hourly temperature and humidity fields from ERA5 reanalysis are used to reconstruct diurnal heat exposure and derive heat-stress indicators relevant to outdoor working conditions. Population-weighted exposure metrics and established temperature–health response functions from global burden datasets are employed to explore potential implications for heat-related mortality and losses in safe working hours.

By integrating high-resolution forest, climate, and population datasets, this work aims to isolate the contribution of local forest loss to heat exposure beyond broader regional warming trends. The analysis is expected to provide early evidence of how deforestation can intensify heat risks in vulnerable rural districts, with direct relevance for heat-adaptation planning, forest conservation priorities, and occupational health policies. These insights can inform district-level climate action plans, guide nature-based cooling strategies, and also support targeted interventions to reduce heat exposure among outdoor workers and farmers in tropical dry forest regions.