GMPV11.6 | Advances in Understanding, Monitoring and Forecasting Volcanic Processes and Hazards
Advances in Understanding, Monitoring and Forecasting Volcanic Processes and Hazards
Convener: Gaetana Ganci | Co-conveners: Francesco Zuccarello, Simone AveniECSECS, Symeon Makris, Matthew Blackett

Monitoring volcanic processes for early detection and/or timely identification of hazardous phenomena relies on the integration of field observations, remote sensing data and numerical models.
This session is dedicated to exploring open questions in the understanding, modelling, and forecasting of volcanic processes and associated hazards. We welcome inter-, cross-, and multi-disciplinary research spanning field observations, satellite remote sensing, physico-mathematical formulations, probabilistic forecasting, data assimilation and fusion, and the development and application of advanced numerical methods. Particular emphasis is placed on approaches that link traditional volcano monitoring with advances in computational science, statistical analysis, Machine Learning (ML), and Artificial Intelligence (AI).
The session aims to promote scientific exchange on the challenges and opportunities associated with the comprehension of complex volcanic systems and translating multidisciplinary observations into improved modelling and hazard assessment. Contributions are encouraged, but not limited, to address the following objectives:

(i) advancing the understanding of volcanic processes and their spatio-temporal dynamics;
(ii) developing innovative approaches for the monitoring, modelling, and forecasting of volcanic phenomena;
(iii) assessing model performance and robustness through validation against real-world case studies, analytical solutions, and laboratory experiments;
(iv) quantifying uncertainty propagation in forward modelling, including sensitivity analysis, and inverse modelling, including optimization and calibration;
(v) exploring the potential of AI- and ML-based methods for integrating and processing heterogeneous, multidisciplinary datasets to enhance volcanic hazard assessment, risk reduction, mitigation strategies, and decision-support applications.
Finally, the session seeks to bring the community together to incentive scientific debate and inspire future directions on volcanic risk mitigation, infrastructural resilience, and societal impacts in active volcanic regions.