Oral Programme AM3

AM3

Designing probabilistic forecast products from ensembles corresponding to customers' requirements
Convener: R. Hagedorn 
Session details
Oral Programme
 / Tue, 13 Sep, 08:30–13:00 / Room Cambridge
Poster Programme
 / Attendance Tue, 13 Sep, 18:30–19:30 / Poster Hall (Ground Floor)
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Tuesday, 13 Sep 2011
Room Cambridge
Chairperson: Renate Hagedorn
Introduction

08:30–09:00
EMS2011-440
Lost in complexity: how probabilistic forecasts can fail to elicit an appropriate response (solicited)
S. Nobert and D. Demeritt
09:00–09:15
EMS2011-381 | Presentation
Optimised presentation methods for public understanding of probabilistic weather forecasts
E. Stephens, K. Mylne, and D. Spiegelhalter
09:15–09:30
EMS2011-84 | Presentation
Customer oriented warning systems
J. Amb├╝hl
09:30–09:45
EMS2011-214 | Presentation
Adapting the MOGREPS first-guess severe weather warning system to changing requirements from the public weather service
R. Neal, K. Mylne, and J. Robbins
09:45–10:00
EMS2011-725
ECMWF ensemble-based products for early warning of high-impact weather events
F. Prates, I. Tsonesvky, and T. Hewson
10:00–10:15
EMS2011-100 | Presentation
Probabilistic products to support oil spill drift forecasts
P. Daniel, D. Paradis, and V. Ulvoas
10:15–10:30
EMS2011-351 | Presentation
A probabilistic ensemble-based wind forecasting system for the international airport Frankfurt/Main
I. Alberts and M. Buchhold
Coffee Break
Chairperson: Ken Mylne
11:00–11:30
EMS2011-37
Ensemble and probabilistic forecasting of (u,v) wind for the energy application (solicited)
P. Pinson
11:30–11:45
EMS2011-81
Use of probabilistic temperature forecasts in power demand prediction: questions, needs and gaps
L. Dubus, T.T.H. Hoang, and J. Najac
11:45–12:00
EMS2011-101 | Presentation
Spatial Bayesian Model Averaging for Precipitation Forecasts from COSMO-DE-EPS
M. Scheuerer
12:00–12:15
EMS2011-254 | Presentation
Probability forecasts for intense precipitation based on upscaled, high-resolution limited-area ensemble forecasts
H. Feddersen
12:15–12:30
EMS2011-692 | Presentation
Ensemble Diversification Indices
M. Denhard
12:30–12:45
EMS2011-542
New clustering products at ECMWF
L. Ferranti and S. Corti
12:45–13:00
Poster Presentation