Oral Programme AM3
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AM3 Designing probabilistic forecast products from ensembles corresponding to customers' requirements |
| Convener: R. Hagedorn |
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Oral Programme
/ Tue, 13 Sep, 08:30–13:00
/ Room Cambridge
Poster Programme
/ Attendance Tue, 13 Sep, 18:30–19:30
/ Poster Hall (Ground Floor)
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Tuesday, 13 September 2011 Room Cambridge Chairperson: Renate Hagedorn |
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Introduction
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| 08:30–09:00 |
EMS2011-440
Lost in complexity: how probabilistic forecasts can fail to elicit an appropriate response (solicited) S. Nobert and D. Demeritt |
| 09:00–09:15 |
EMS2011-381
| presentation
Optimised presentation methods for public understanding of probabilistic weather forecasts E. Stephens, K. Mylne, and D. Spiegelhalter |
| 09:15–09:30 |
EMS2011-84
| presentation
Customer oriented warning systems J. Ambühl |
| 09:30–09:45 |
EMS2011-214
| presentation
Adapting the MOGREPS first-guess severe weather warning system to changing requirements from the public weather service R. Neal, K. Mylne, and J. Robbins |
| 09:45–10:00 |
EMS2011-725
ECMWF ensemble-based products for early warning of high-impact weather events F. Prates, I. Tsonesvky, and T. Hewson |
| 10:00–10:15 |
EMS2011-100
| presentation
Probabilistic products to support oil spill drift forecasts P. Daniel, D. Paradis, and V. Ulvoas |
| 10:15–10:30 |
EMS2011-351
| presentation
A probabilistic ensemble-based wind forecasting system for the international airport Frankfurt/Main I. Alberts and M. Buchhold |
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Coffee Break
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| 11:00–11:30 |
EMS2011-37
Ensemble and probabilistic forecasting of (u,v) wind for the energy application (solicited) P. Pinson |
| 11:30–11:45 |
EMS2011-81
Use of probabilistic temperature forecasts in power demand prediction: questions, needs and gaps L. Dubus, T.T.H. Hoang, and J. Najac |
| 11:45–12:00 |
EMS2011-101
| presentation
Spatial Bayesian Model Averaging for Precipitation Forecasts from COSMO-DE-EPS M. Scheuerer |
| 12:00–12:15 |
EMS2011-254
| presentation
Probability forecasts for intense precipitation based on upscaled, high-resolution limited-area ensemble forecasts H. Feddersen |
| 12:15–12:30 |
EMS2011-692
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Ensemble Diversification Indices M. Denhard |
| 12:30–12:45 |
EMS2011-542
New clustering products at ECMWF L. Ferranti and S. Corti |
| 12:45–13:00 |
Poster Presentation
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