Oral Programme NWP4

NWP4

Probabilistic and ensemble weather forecasting applications at short and very short ranges (including nowcasting)
Conveners: Andrea Montani , Jan Barkmeijer 
Oral Programme
 / Thu, 15 Sep, 14:00–19:00  / Room Harvard
Poster Programme
 / Attendance Thu, 15 Sep, 16:00–17:00  / Poster Hall (Ground Floor)

Thursday, 15 September 2011
Room Harvard
Chairperson: Montani
14:00–14:30
EMS2011-818
Challenges and potential obstacles for efficient probabilistic > predictions in the short range (solicited)
T. Iversen
14:30–14:45
EMS2011-334
To what extent can statistical post-processing improve upon raw GLAMEPS precipitation forecasts?
M.J. Schmeits and C.J. Kok
14:45–15:00
EMS2011-401 | presentation
PEARP, the Météo-France Ensemble Prediction System
L. Descamps and C. Labadie
15:00–15:15
EMS2011-352 | presentation
Skill assessmnet of the new ECMWF 100-meter wind fields
T. Petroliagis, F. Pappenberger, and R. Buizza
15:15–15:30
EMS2011-23
Increasing Certainty - Combination methods for reliable probabilistic wind production forecasts
B. Greaves, J. Collins, J. Parkes, and L. Landberg
15:30–15:45
EMS2011-452 | presentation
A mesoscale ensemble prediction system using singular vectors at JMA
K. Ono, Y. Honda, and M. Kunii
15:45–16:00
EMS2011-745 | presentation
Probabilistic Weather Predictions Based on Analog Forecasts
D. Rife, L. Delle Monache, B. Nagarajan, T. Eckel, and K. Searight
Coffee Break
17:00–17:30
EMS2011-804 | presentation
Convective-scale ensemble prediction experiments with the AROME model (solicited)
F. Bouttier, O. Nuissier, B. Vié, and L. Raynaud
17:30–17:45
EMS2011-527 | presentation
Studies at MRI toward cloud resolving ensemble NWP -Next generation supercomputer project and the Tokyo metropolitan area deep convection field campaign-
K. Saito, H. Seko, T. Kawabata, Y. Shoji, T. Kuroda, T. Fujita, and O. Suzuki
17:45–18:00
EMS2011-225 | presentation
Impact of soil-moisture initialisation on the quality of COSMO-LEPS forecasts
A. Montani, C. Marsigli, and T. Paccagnella
18:00–18:15
EMS2011-603
Development and application of a convection-permitting ensemble system using a variation of soil moisture initial fields
L. Gantner, V. Klüpfel, and N. Kalthoff
18:15–18:30
EMS2011-510
Blending the probabilistic nowcasting method Rad-TRAM with a time-lagged COSMO-DE ensemble for precipitation forecasts in different regimes
K. Kober, G.C. Craig, and C. Keil
18:30–18:45
EMS2011-799 | presentation
Evaluation of different perturbation approaches for the development of a short-range ensemble system.
C. Marsigli, A. Montani, and T. Paccagnella
18:45–19:00
EMS2011-186 | presentation
Preliminary evaluation and verification of the pre-operational COSMO-DE Ensemble Prediction System
S. Theis, M. Buchhold, C. Gebhardt, C. Peralta, and Z. Ben Bouallègue