Oral Programme CL2

CL2

Climate modelling, long-range forecasting, climate prediction and scenarios from seasons to century
Convener: C. Appenzeller  | Co-Conveners: U. Ulbrich , J.-P. Céron , C. Goodess 
Oral Programme
 / Mon, 12 Sep, 14:00–18:30  / Room Sorbonne
 / Tue, 13 Sep, 08:30–13:00  / Room Sorbonne
Poster Programme
 / Attendance Tue, 13 Sep, 18:30–19:30  /  / Attendance 18:30–19:30
 / Attendance Tue, 13 Sep, 18:30–19:30  /  / Attendance 18:30–19:30
 / Attendance Tue, 13 Sep, 18:30–19:30  /  / Attendance 18:30–19:30  / Poster Hall (Ground Floor)

Monday, 12 September 2011
Room Sorbonne
Chairperson: Christof Appenzeller
Climate Scenarios and Climate Modeling

14:00–14:15
EMS2011-548 | presentation
Vertical structure of 20th century temperature trends in a GCM run, reanalyses, statistical reconstructions and observations
A. Stickler, A. M. Fischer, and S. Brönnimann
14:15–14:30
EMS2011-507
Effects of greenhouse gas increase and ozone recovery on lower stratospheric circulation and the age of air as revealed by chemistry-climate model simulations up to 2100
K. Shibata and M. Deushi
14:30–14:45
EMS2011-573
Sea Level Rise and Sea Ice Changes in a 2°C-scenario and a "business-as-usual" scenario: Results from the ENSEMBLES Second Stream Experiment
J. Körper, I. Höschel, J.A. Lowe, C.D. Hewitt, D. Salas-Melia, E. Roeckner, H. Huebener, J.-F. Royer, J.-L. Dufresne, A. Pardaens, M.A. Giorgetta, M.G. Sanderson, O.H. Ottera, J. Tjiputra, S. Denvil, and U. Cubasch
14:45–15:00
EMS2011-45
Evaluation of GCM-based climatic projections for Northern Eurasia: implication for environmental modeling
O. Anisimov, V. Kokorev, and Ye. Ziltcova
15:00–15:15
EMS2011-38
Evaluating links between atmospheric circulation and surface air temperature in climate models in control and future climates
E. Plavcova and J. Kysely
15:15–15:30
EMS2011-18 | presentation
Impact of wind speed on nighttime temperature increase due to higher atmospheric carbon dioxide
G.J. Steeneveld, A.A.M. Holtslag, R.T. McNider, and R.A. Pielke Sr.
15:30–15:45
EMS2011-21 | presentation
Multi-model projection of temperature extremes in Poland in 2021-2050
J. Jędruszkiewicz
15:45–16:00
EMS2011-723 | presentation
Precipitation and evaporation in Poland - projections for 2021-2050
J. Wibig
Coffee Break
16:30–16:45
EMS2011-832
Regional Climate Models Performance representing the Precipitation over Portugal
P.M.M. Soares, R.M. Cardoso, J. de Medeiros, P.M.A. Miranda, and M. Belo-Pereira
16:45–17:00
EMS2011-304 | presentation
An analysis of changes in the extremes of temperature, precipitation, and wind speed based on regional climate projections for Germany
C. Dalelane and T. Deutschländer
17:00–17:15 EMS2011-191
Constructing high resolution extreme temperature scenarios over North America (withdrawn)
G. Li and X. Zhang
17:15–17:30
EMS2011-124 | presentation
Verification of clustering properties of extreme daily temperatures in winter and summer using the extremal index in five downscaled climate models
J. A. López Díaz
17:30–17:45
EMS2011-482
Regime-dependent validation of simulated surface wind speed
I. Anders and B. Rockel
17:45–18:00
EMS2011-230
Multiparameter Error Correction and Downscaling of Regional Climate Models
R.A.I. Wilcke, A. Gobiet, T. Mendlik, and M.J. Themeßl
18:00–18:15
EMS2011-370 | presentation
Uncertainties in regional models and observations.
J.P. Montavez, J.J Gómez-Navarro, R. Lorente-Plazas, S. Jerez, J.A. Garcia-Valero, P. Jimenez-Guerrero, and J.F. González-Rouco
18:15–18:30
EMS2011-141
An alternative approach for regional climate model evaluation
M.C. Sanchez de Cos, J.M. Sanchez-Laulhe, C. Jimenez, J.M. Sancho, and E. Rodriguez

Tuesday, 13 September 2011
Room Sorbonne
Chairperson: Jean-Pierre Ceron
Climate Impacts

08:30–08:45
EMS2011-407 | presentation
A Seamless Approach to Assessing Model Uncertainties in Climate Projections of Severe European Windstorms
P. Knippertz, T. Trzeciak, and J. Owen
08:45–09:00
EMS2011-766
Representativeness of the climate change impact analysis based on a subset of available GCMs
M. Dubrovsky and M. Trnka
09:00–09:15
EMS2011-549
Assessing climate impacts with models of different resolutions
S. Baumgart, F. Kreienkamp, A. Spekat, and W. Enke
09:15–09:30
EMS2011-208
Obtain High Resolution Climate Information by Regional Climate Simulation for Bergen-Hardanger Region
Y. Xu, I. Esau, and I. Bethke
09:30–09:45
EMS2011-75 | presentation
High-resolution downscaled climate-change simulations of snowfall in the Colorado Headwaters region
J. Dudhia, R.M. Rasmussen, K. Ikeda, C.-H. Liu, G. Thompson, F. Chen, M. Tewari, and D. Gochis
09:45–10:00
EMS2011-574
Estimating Mediterranean river discharge from modelled runoff data: a multi-model approach
M.V. Struglia, G. Pisacane, and B.M. Fekete
10:00–10:15
EMS2011-154 | presentation
Delayed ENSO impact on spring precipitation over North Atlantic/European region
I. Herceg Bulic and F. Kucharski
10:15–10:30
EMS2011-36 | presentation
Interpretation of climate change in France using city analogues in the DRIAS climate services project
J. Lémond, S. Planton, M. Ha-Duong, and Ph. Dandin
Coffee Break
Predictability

11:00–11:30
EMS2011-841
Decadal climate predictions with the ECMWF coupled system (solicited)
S Corti, M Balmaseda, L Magnusson, and K Morgensen
11:30–11:45
EMS2011-768
AMV and IPO Decadal Prediction Skill
J. García-Serrano and F.J. Doblas-Reyes
11:45–12:00
EMS2011-86 | presentation
Assessing the skill of decadal predictions
R. Gangstø, A. P. Weigel, and M. A. Liniger
12:00–12:15
EMS2011-695
Seasonal to interannual and decadal predictability for South Eastern Europe
R. Bojariu, L. Velea, and E. Tudose
12:15–12:30
EMS2011-338
The relationship between ocean heat content and winter storm activity over the North Atlantic on decadal time scales
K.M. Nissen, U. Ulbrich, and G.C. Leckebusch
12:30–12:45
EMS2011-69 | presentation
Seasonal predictability of fall heavy precipitating events over southern France
J.-P. Céron, J.-F. Guérémy, and N. Laanaia
12:45–13:00
EMS2011-190 | presentation
West African Monsoon influence on the summer Euro-Atlantic circulation
M. Gaetani, B. Pohl, H. Douville, and B. Fontaine