Oral CL4
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CL4 Climate prediction and scenarios from seasons to century |
| Convener: Christof Appenzeller | Co-Conveners: Jean-Pierre Céron , Clare Goodess , Martin Widmann , Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes |
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Wednesday, 11 September 2013 Room G10 Chairperson: Christof Appenzeller |
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| 08:30–09:00 |
EMS2013-211
Skillful Predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation A. Arribas, A. Brookshaw, C. Maclachlan, D. Peterson, A. Williams, M. Gordon, A. Scaife, N. Dunstone, and M. Martin |
| 09:00–09:15 |
EMS2013-556
Links between Arctic sea-ice conditions and oceanic heat transport S. Tietsche, J. Day, and E. Hawkins |
| 09:15–09:30 |
EMS2013-451
The start date dependence of initialised predictions of Pan-Arctic and regional sea ice cover J. Day, S. Tietsche, and E. Hawkins |
| 09:30–09:45 |
EMS2013-387
| presentation
Seasonal Forecast in France : application to hydrology J.-P. Céron, S. Singla, E. Martin, F. Regimbeau, M. Déqué, F. Habets, and J.-P. Vidal |
| 09:45–10:00 |
EMS2013-210
Forcasting climate indices on a seasonal to decadal timescale in the framework of EUPORIAS I. Mahlstein, A. Fischer, and M. Liniger |
| 10:00–10:15 |
EMS2013-280
| presentation
Evaluating decadal hindcasts: why and how? C. A. T. Ferro, T. E. Fricker, F. E. L. Otto, and E. B. Suckling |
| 10:15–10:30 |
EMS2013-195
| presentation
Regional decadal predictions for Europe: Skill and added value. M. Uhlig, H. Feldmann, S. Mieruch, and C. Kottmeier |
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Coffee Break & Poster Sessions
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| 11:30–12:00 |
EMS2013-782
VALUE COST Action - Validating and Integrating Downscaling Methods for Climate Change Research M. Widmann, D. Maraun, R. E. Benestad, J. M. Gutierrez, E. Hertig, R. Huth, S. Kotlarski, and J. Wibig |
| 12:00–12:15 |
EMS2013-772
Climate classification in climate change assessment T. Halenka, M. Belda, J. Kalvova, and E. Holtanova |
| 12:15–12:30 |
EMS2013-34
Regional projections of future precipitation characteristics using a GCM-RCM ensemble (withdrawn) S. Hänsel, S. Mehler, and J. Matschullat |
| 12:30–12:45 |
EMS2013-700
| presentation
Scenarios of precipitation extremes in Poland for the 21st century, comparison of different methods J. Wibig |
| 12:45–13:00 |
EMS2013-721
Regional multi-model ensemble results for hydrological cycle properties in a high- and a low-emission scenario H. Huebener and M.G. Sanderson |
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Thursday, 12 September 2013 Room G10 |
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| 08:30–08:45 |
EMS2013-650
The response of North Atlantic and European cyclones to climate change in the CMIP5 climate models G. Zappa, L. Shaffrey, and K. Hodges |
| 08:45–09:00 |
EMS2013-508
| presentation
Large-scale temperature gradients and the extratropical storm track responses in CMIP5 B J Harvey, L C Shaffrey, and T J Woollings |
| 09:00–09:15 |
EMS2013-614
Ensemble computation of waves and storm surges in the Mediterranean Sea in the next decades (2021-2050). P. Lionello, D. Conte, and L. Marzo |
| 09:15–09:30 |
EMS2013-257
| presentation
Medicane risk in a changing climate: Results of two methods R. Romero, M. Tous, and C. Ramis |
| 09:30–09:45 |
EMS2013-647
Climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula: Comparing uncertainties of multimodel, multiscenario and multiphysics ensembles. J.P. Montavez, S. Jerez, J. Fernandez, and P Jimenez-Guerrero |
| 09:45–10:00 |
EMS2013-151
| presentation
Methods for the inclusion of parameter uncertainty in weather and climate forecasts S. Jewson |
| 10:00–10:15 |
EMS2013-3
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Multiscale behavior of the ALARO-0 model for simulating extreme summer precipitation climatology R. De Troch, R. Hamdi, H. Van de Vyver, J.-F. Geleyn, and P. Termonia |
| 10:15–10:30 |
EMS2013-15
A Response in the ENSO cycle to an extratropical forcing mechanism during the El Niño to La Niña transition Y. Wang, A. R. Lupo, and J. Qin |