Orals ECAM3

ECAM3

Forecast Verification of High-Impact Weather
Convener: Pertti Nurmi  | Co-Convener: Martin Göber 
Orals
 / Thu, 10 Sep, 14:00–16:00  / 17:00–18:30  / Room Kyoto
 / Fri, 11 Sep, 09:00–10:30  / Room Kyoto
Posters
 / Attendance Fri, 11 Sep, 10:45–11:30  / Display Thu, 10 Sep, 08:00–Fri, 11 Sep, 13:00  / Sofia I

Thursday, 10 September 2015
Room Kyoto
Chairperson: Pertti Nurmi
14:00–14:15
EMS2015-299
Is there a limit to forecast accuracy? The impact of temporal sampling
Marion Mittermaier and David Stephenson
14:15–14:30
EMS2015-485
Spurious skill? Varying event frequencies, non-collapsibility and Simpson's Paradox in forecast verification
Roger Harbord
14:30–14:45
EMS2015-570
A new verification method for assessing competing forecast performance with timing errors
Eric Gilleland et al.
14:45–15:00
EMS2015-261
Verification of the accuracy and timeliness of Canadian Weather Warnings using the Weather Warning Index
Laurence Wilson et al.
15:00–15:15
EMS2015-430
Verification of wind gust warnings at DWD
Cristina Primo et al.
15:15–15:30
EMS2015-204
Probabilistic SAL - Evaluating the spatial properties of probabilistic precipitation simulations
Sabine Radanovics et al.
15:30–15:45
Poster introduction

15:45–16:00
EMS2015-105
Challenge to Develop and Demonstrate New User-Oriented Forecast Verification Metrics
Elizabeth Ebert et al.
Coffee break
Sochi Olympics: FROST 2014

17:00–17:15
EMS2015-577
The Framework of the WMO/WWRP FROST-2014 Forecast Verification Setup and Activities (solicited)
Pertti Nurmi et al.
17:15–17:30
EMS2015-150
Verification of official operational forecasts for the Sochi Olympics
Anatoly Muraviev et al.
17:30–17:45
EMS2015-576
End-user focused verification of precipitation nowcast systems during the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics
Larisa Nikitina et al.
17:45–18:00
EMS2015-364
Performance of deterministic numerical weather forecasts during the FROST-2014 project field campaign
Anastasia Bundel et al.
18:00–18:15
EMS2015-155
Verification of high impact weather forecasts in the region of Sochi-2014 Olympic Games
Anatoly Muraviev et al.
18:15–18:30
EMS2015-154
On the spatial verification of FROST-2014 precipitation forecast fields
Anatoly Muraviev et al.

Friday, 11 September 2015
Room Kyoto
Chairperson: Laurie Wilson
09:00–09:15
EMS2015-550
Advanced Methods for Climate and Regional Model Validation with Societal Applications
Barbara Brown et al.
09:15–09:30
EMS2015-284
Verification of user-oriented monthly and seasonal forecasts
Christoph Spirig et al.
09:30–09:45
EMS2015-159
Verification of long range drought forecasts
Lovro Kalin et al.
09:45–10:00
EMS2015-307
Ensemble versus deterministic performance: what are the benefits for thresholds of interest from a weather hazards/impacts perspective
Marion Mittermaier and Gabriella Csima
10:00–10:15
EMS2015-600
Probabilistic predictability of weather types in operational ensemble forecasts and the Lorenz model
Martin Göber et al.
10:15–10:30
EMS2015-81
Quality Evaluation of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates from CMA for Grid Precipitation verification
zhao bin