Orals ECAM3
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ECAM3 Forecast Verification of High-Impact Weather |
| Convener: Pertti Nurmi | Co-Convener: Martin Göber |
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Thursday, 10 September 2015 Room Kyoto Chairperson: Pertti Nurmi |
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| 14:00–14:15 |
EMS2015-299
Is there a limit to forecast accuracy? The impact of temporal sampling Marion Mittermaier and David Stephenson |
| 14:15–14:30 |
EMS2015-485
| presentation
Spurious skill? Varying event frequencies, non-collapsibility and Simpson's Paradox in forecast verification Roger Harbord |
| 14:30–14:45 |
EMS2015-570
A new verification method for assessing competing forecast performance with timing errors Eric Gilleland, Gregory Roux, Barbara G. Brown, and Tressa L. Fowler |
| 14:45–15:00 |
EMS2015-261
Verification of the accuracy and timeliness of Canadian Weather Warnings using the Weather Warning Index Laurence Wilson, Nelson Shum, and Tim Bullock |
| 15:00–15:15 |
EMS2015-430
Verification of wind gust warnings at DWD Cristina Primo, Guido Schröder, Bernhard K. Reichert, and Dirk Heizenreder |
| 15:15–15:30 |
EMS2015-204
| presentation
Probabilistic SAL - Evaluating the spatial properties of probabilistic precipitation simulations Sabine Radanovics, Jean-Philippe Vidal, and Eric Sauquet |
| 15:30–15:45 |
Poster introduction
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| 15:45–16:00 |
EMS2015-105
Challenge to Develop and Demonstrate New User-Oriented Forecast Verification Metrics Elizabeth Ebert, Thomas Haiden, Barbara Brown, Martin Goeber, Marion Mittermaier, and Pertti Nurmi |
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Coffee break
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Sochi Olympics: FROST 2014
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| 17:00–17:15 |
EMS2015-577
| presentation
The Framework of the WMO/WWRP FROST-2014 Forecast Verification Setup and Activities (solicited) Pertti Nurmi, Anastasia Bundel, Tatiana Dmitrieva, Dmitry Kiktev, Anatoly Muraviev, Alexander Smirnov, Evgeny Vasilyev, Larisa Nikitina, Tatiana Bazlova, Nikolai Bocharnikov, and Suleiman Mostmandy |
| 17:15–17:30 |
EMS2015-150
| presentation
Verification of official operational forecasts for the Sochi Olympics Anatoly Muraviev, Dmitri Kiktev, Tatiana Dmitrieva, Anastasia Bundel, and Alexander Smirnov |
| 17:30–17:45 |
EMS2015-576
| presentation
End-user focused verification of precipitation nowcast systems during the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics Larisa Nikitina, Suleiman Mostmandy, and Pertti Nurmi |
| 17:45–18:00 |
EMS2015-364
| presentation
Performance of deterministic numerical weather forecasts during the FROST-2014 project field campaign Anastasia Bundel, Anatoly Muraviev, Pertti Nurmi, Dmitry Kiktev, Alexander Smirnov, and Andrea Montani |
| 18:00–18:15 |
EMS2015-155
| presentation
Verification of high impact weather forecasts in the region of Sochi-2014 Olympic Games Anatoly Muraviev, Dmitri Kiktev, and Anastasia Bundel |
| 18:15–18:30 |
EMS2015-154
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On the spatial verification of FROST-2014 precipitation forecast fields Anatoly Muraviev, Anastasia Bundel, Dmitri Kiktev, Nikolay Bocharnikov, and Tatiana Bazlova |
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Friday, 11 September 2015 Room Kyoto Chairperson: Laurie Wilson |
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| 09:00–09:15 |
EMS2015-550
Advanced Methods for Climate and Regional Model Validation with Societal Applications Barbara Brown, Eric Gilleland, Caspar Ammann, Tressa Fowler, and Randy Bullock |
| 09:15–09:30 |
EMS2015-284
Verification of user-oriented monthly and seasonal forecasts Christoph Spirig, Jonas Bhend, Irina Mahlstein, and Mark Liniger |
| 09:30–09:45 |
EMS2015-159
Verification of long range drought forecasts Lovro Kalin, Domagoj Mihajlovic, Ksenija Cindric Kalin, and Blazenka Matjacic |
| 09:45–10:00 |
EMS2015-307
Ensemble versus deterministic performance: what are the benefits for thresholds of interest from a weather hazards/impacts perspective Marion Mittermaier and Gabriella Csima |
| 10:00–10:15 |
EMS2015-600
Probabilistic predictability of weather types in operational ensemble forecasts and the Lorenz model Martin Göber, Eric Förster, Peter Nevir, and Paul James |
| 10:15–10:30 |
EMS2015-81
Quality Evaluation of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates from CMA for Grid Precipitation verification zhao bin |