In the wake of the 6th assessment report from IPCC due this year, the Norwegian Centre for Climate Services (NCCS) has started a project to update their national climate assessment report Climate in Norway 2100. A major part of this update revolves around the selection of a representative model ensemble for a low, medium and high emission scenario, plus bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX output and statistical downscaling directly from CMIP6 to the national, and subnational, level. The results will form the natural scientific basis for local climate adaptation in Norway, through the computation of expected changes in selected climate indices on a 1 x 1 km grid covering the Norwegian mainland.
The new knowledge will also serve to update the much used climate fact sheets (presented at EMS 2016) for Norwegian counties. We aim to develop a map based webtool for the climate fact sheets, consisting of map layers of several climate indices. The user will be able to get tailored fact sheets for a given point or region, generated from a template that merges information from map layers and predefined texts.
The project is divided into five working groups: 1. Historical climate, 2. Modeling, 2. Future climate, 4. Infrastructure, 5. Outreach. In this presentation we will present the organization and plans for the project, as well as details on the model ensemble selection from EURO-CORDEX, based on both CMIP5 and CMIP6, and the methods for downscaling a bias-adjustment to the national level. The updated report is planned to be issued in 2024.
How to cite: Dyrrdal, A. V., Hygen, H. O., Nilsen, I. B., and Mayer, S.: Towards updated national projections for climate adaptation in Norway, EMS Annual Meeting 2021, online, 6–10 Sep 2021, EMS2021-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2021-105, 2021.
