Future precipitation changes over the eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps areas in the latest EURO-CORDEX ensemble

The topographically complex coastal-mountainous region of the eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps is one of the rainiest areas in the Mediterranean and particularly vulnerable to climate change. The aim is to estimate the future climate change of precipitation over this region over which research on this subject is still limited. We use the climate projections from the latest EURO-CORDEX ensemble at 0.11° resolution. The ensemble is comprised of 14 regional climate models (RCMs) driven by eight CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs), a total of 68 members. The climate change signal is examined for the far future period (2071-2100) with respect to the historical period (1971-2000) for one greenhouse gases concentration scenario, particularly for RCP8.5. Total precipitation shows a considerable reduction in summer months, while in winter it is projected to increase in the northern part of the region and to decrease in southern parts, displaying the known south-north gradients. Accordingly, the number of rainy days is projected to decrease by the end of the century, especially during summer over the entire region and in winter over the southern parts. However, the precipitation intensity increase can be expected by the end of the century, especially during the winter months, while in the summer there is no clear consensus between different models. Also, an increase in extreme precipitation is projected during the winter months, while during summer months a similar south-north gradient is shown as for total precipitation. A more detailed analysis for multiple future periods and greenhouse gases concentration scenarios, with an emphasis on extreme precipitation, is planned.