EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts
Vol. 18, EMS2021-150, 2021
EMS Annual Meeting 2021
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Predicting Climate Change over the multi-annual range: a perspective from CMCC Decadal Prediction System

Dario Nicolì1, Alessio Bellucci2, Paolo Ruggieri1,3, Panos Athanasiadis1, Giusy Fedele1, and Silvio Gualdi1
Dario Nicolì et al.
  • 1Centro EuroMediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, CSP, Bologna, Italy (dario.nicoli@cmcc.it)
  • 2Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del Clima (CNR-ISAC), Bologna, Italy
  • 3Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Bologna, Italy

After the early pioneering studies during the 2000s, and the first coordinated multi-model effort within the framework of the 5th Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) in early 2010s, decadal climate predictions are now entering a more mature phase of their historical development. Near-term climate prediction activities have been recently endorsed by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) as one of the Grand Challenges in climate science research, and the Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction, collecting hindcasts and forecasts from several contributing centres worldwide has been established by the WMO.

Here we present results from the CMIP6 DCPP-A decadal hindcasts produced with the CMCC decadal prediction system (CMCC DPS), based on the fully-coupled CMCC-CM2-SR5 dynamical model. A 10-member suite of 10-year retrospective forecasts, initialized every year from 1960 to 2019, is performed using a full-field initialization strategy.

The predictive skill for key quantities is assessed and compared with a non-initialized historical simulation, so as to verify the added value of initialization. In particular, the CMCC DPS is capable to skilfully reproduce past-climate surface temperature over the North Atlantic ocean, the Indian ocean and the Western Pacific ocean, as well as over most part of the continents. Beyond the contribution of the climate change, predictive skill emerges, among other regions, for the subpolar North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, resembling the imprint of the extra-tropical part of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability.

In terms of precipitation, CMCC DPS is able to capture most of the decadal variability over the Northern part of the Eurasian continent. Indeed, a set of regional diagnostics is aimed to investigate the process at stake behind this high predictive skill.

How to cite: Nicolì, D., Bellucci, A., Ruggieri, P., Athanasiadis, P., Fedele, G., and Gualdi, S.: Predicting Climate Change over the multi-annual range: a perspective from CMCC Decadal Prediction System, EMS Annual Meeting 2021, online, 6–10 Sep 2021, EMS2021-150, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2021-150, 2021.

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