Review on modelling tools for maize pests risks in agro-climatic zones of central Europe.

Projections of crop-pest dynamics under climate change (CC) impact negatively throughout the 21^st century, suggesting increased pest pressure over central Europe. Variability in environmental conditions significantly affects the spread, abundance, and management of maize pests, such as Western corn rootworm (WCR), European corn borer (ECB) and wireworms, as indicated from the past monitoring data and quantitative pest models. Regional climate change and landscape factors are modifying the development of these thermophile insects and their impact on crops. Several conceptual modelling works related to pest population dynamics, phenology models, spread and risk mapping have been proposed. The challenges become complex for WCR and wireworms due to their soil-dwelling nature, eventually bringing significant site-specific spatial uncertainties to simulate the soil-crop-pest ecosystem. Most of the approaches have been quantitatively standardised, leaving out qualitative factors prioritizing farmer’s behaviour towards pest control measures. In our study we investigate statistical-empirical and process based models and integrated modelling frameworks for future simulation of soil-crop-pest phenology under the CC impact. We identified gaps in the improvements of pest modelling approaches and site-specific agrometeorological indices for four agro-climatic zones. In conclusion we propose a mechanistic physiological based demographic model, including improved population models under defined landscape extent and agrometeorological drivers. For example, temperature, photoperiod, precipitation changes, and topography are the significant drivers for ECB, whereas in addition, WCR and wireworms include soil type, crop rotation, and farmer’s management options. We derive crop damage factors from the quantitative surveys influencing maize grain yield, root damage and pest control measures, including weather conditions, insecticide distribution, pest pressures, and synchrony between pest and crop growth cycle. Agro-climatic zones of central Europe will experience northward shifts in temperature zones, growing season length, by further accelerating climate change. Hence, it is exposed to more vulnerabilities and demands improved alert services and control measures. The improved pest modelling approach integrated with crop models under CC impact provides a reasonable basis for advanced crop protection strategies with reduced pesticide use in maize production. It is used to formulate a regional risk assessment for specific pests to inform an integrated approach of cultivation, biological and chemical measures.