Climate change impacts on the Greek tourism sector

In this study we examine the impacts of climate change on the tourism sector using a number of tailored climate indicators assessing whether climate conditions are suitable for touristic activities such as the Tourism Climate Index -focusing on outdoor activities- and the Beach Climate Index -focusing on beach activities- as well as fire danger indicators such as the Canadian Fire Weather Index, focusing on forest fire risk. To this aim daily or sub-daily data for a number of meteorological variables from a large ensemble member of Regional Climate Models from the EURO-CORDEX data base are used. The data cover the period 1971-2100 under three RCP emissions scenarios, namely RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The analysis is performed for three periods, the 1971-2000 which is used as a reference period and two future periods, the 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. The results indicate that the robust warming projected on a seasonal basis, under all three climate scenarios, drives the changes on all indicators examined. Regarding the climate suitability indicators for tourism the results indicate a lengthening of the tourist season suitable climate conditions while for the fire danger indicators, an increase in the number of days with high and very high fire danger conditions is projected. The most pronounced changes are evident towards the end of the century and under the RCP8.5 future emissions scenario. This study is performed in the framework of CLIMPACT, a Greek national funded project which aims to immediate integration, harmonization and optimization of existing climate services and early warning systems for climate change-related natural disasters in Greece, including supportive observations from relevant national infrastructure.