EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts
Vol. 18, EMS2021-456, 2021
EMS Annual Meeting 2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Verification as a service to bring more transparency on forecast accuracy to weather services and users

Evelyn Müller, Jan Hoffmann, and Dennis Schulze
Evelyn Müller et al.
  • MeteoIQ, Berlin, Germany (e.mueller@meteoiq.com)

Actual, continuously available information on the accuracy of forecasts can support both weather services and users of forecasts in quality assurance during operations and identify systematic weaknesses. Comparing the forecast success of different forecasting methods allows decision makers in the weather service and on the user side to evaluate the cost-benefit ratio of available forecasting approaches, be it different models, DMO and post-processing, or different providers. Finally, in addition to on-off experiments for version comparison, the success of developments to the forecast system can be seen in the comparison of time series of verification results against those of other forecasts. 

From the development of the forecasting process to daily operations to the use of forecasts in subsequent industry applications, stakeholders have very different questions about the quality of weather forecasts. From the weather room, there is a particular need for up-to-date information on the previous day's forecast success and rapid access to case verification analyses following unusual events. Especially in B2B, case-specific comparison with the success of other forecasts is also in demand. For management, on the other hand, longer-term trends in forecast quality are the focus of interest. Finally, users often base their choice of a forecasting provider not only on procurement costs and convenience of access, but also take into account the current forecast accuracy of their relevant parameters, in their region, in the forecast horizon relevant to them. Especially weather-sensitive industries such as road weather services, energy production and transmission, but also media often agree with forecast suppliers on continuous monitoring of forecast quality. 

We present different perspectives and questions and show possible answers as use cases in a verification portal.

How to cite: Müller, E., Hoffmann, J., and Schulze, D.: Verification as a service to bring more transparency on forecast accuracy to weather services and users, EMS Annual Meeting 2021, online, 6–10 Sep 2021, EMS2021-456, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2021-456, 2021.

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