EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts
Vol. 18, EMS2021-505, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2021-505
EMS Annual Meeting 2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Wind droughts and winter cold threaten Europe's future energy security

Karin van der Wiel1, Laurens Stoop1,2, Bas van Zuijlen2, Russel Blackport3, Mechteld van den Broek2, and Frank Selten1
Karin van der Wiel et al.
  • 1Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
  • 2Utrecht University
  • 3Exeter University

To mitigate climate change a renewable energy transition is needed. Existing power systems will need to be re-designed to balance variable renewable energy production with variable energy demand. I will describe the meteorological sensitivity of a highly-renewable European energy system based on large ensemble simulations from two global climate models. From 2×2000 years of simulated weather conditions, we calculated daily wind and solar energy yields and energy demand and selected events of high societal impact: extreme high energy shortfall (residual load, i.e. demand minus renewable production). High energy shortfall days are characterized by large-scale high pressure systems over central Europe, with lower than normal wind speeds and below normal temperatures, driving up energy demands. The events typically occur mid-winter, locked to the coldest months of the year. Near-stationary high pressure situations occur that cause long lasting periods of high energy shortfall. A spatial redistribution of wind turbines and solar panels cannot prevent these high-impact events, options to import renewable energy from remote locations during these events are therefore limited. Projected changes due to climate change are substantially smaller than interannual variability. Future power systems with large penetration of variable renewable energy must be designed with these events in mind.

How to cite: van der Wiel, K., Stoop, L., van Zuijlen, B., Blackport, R., van den Broek, M., and Selten, F.: Wind droughts and winter cold threaten Europe's future energy security, EMS Annual Meeting 2021, online, 6–10 Sep 2021, EMS2021-505, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2021-505, 2021.

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