Linkages between Arctic and Mid-Latitude Weather and Climate: Unraveling the Impact of Changing Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperatures

The study addresses the question, if Arctic sea ice decline is the main driver of observed changes in terms of Arctic-midlatitude linkages during winter. We discuss, if the increase of global sea surface temperatures plays an additional role. A set of four model sensitivity experiments with different sea ice and sea surface temperature boundary conditions is analyzed and compared to observed changes in reanalysis data. A detection of atmospheric circulation regimes is performed. These regimes are evaluated for their cyclone and blocking characteristics and their changes in frequency during winter to reveal tropospheric changes induced by the change of boundary conditions. Furthermore, the impacts on the large-scale circulation up into the stratosphere are investigated. The results show that the impact from sea surface temperature changes is generally stronger than the impact of sea ice concentration changes alone. However, in particular in terms of the startospheric pathway, the combined impact of sea ice and sea surface temperature changes reproduces findings from the reanalysis best.

For early winter, the observed increase in atmospheric blocking in the region between Scandinavia and the Ural are primarily induced by the changes in sea surface temperatures. Nevertheless, the impacts on the stratospheric circulation in terms of a weakened polar vortex, are only observed if sea ice is reduced and sea surface temperatures are increased. Late winter impacts are more inconsistent in the model sensitivity study, but slightly improved when both components of forcing are changed. In this context, we further identify a discrepancy in the model to reproduce the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex through blocking induced upward propagation of planetary waves.