EPISODES is an empirical statistical downscaling method which has been developed at the German national weather service, DWD (Kreienkamp et al. 2019). Its main aim is the downscaling of climate projections and climate predictions (seasonal to decadal) from global climate models (GCMs) to regional scale. A specific aim is to enhance ensembles based on dynamical downscaling and to improve robustness of deduced indices and statements.
The methodology involves two main steps, first, analogue downscaling in connection with linear regression and, second, a sort of weather generator. An important precondition is the availability of long-term observation data sets of high quality and resolution. The synthetic time-series resulting from EPISODES are multivariate and consistent in space and time. The data provide daily values for selected surface variables and can be delivered on grid or station representation. As such, they meet the main requirements for applications in climate impact research. Thanks to low computational needs, EPISODES can provide climate projections within short time. This enables early insights in the local effects of climate change as projected by GCMs and allows flexibility in the selection of ensembles.
While good results for EPISODES projections have already been achieved for Germany, the methodology needs to be adapted for the more complex terrain of the Alpine region. This is done in close collaboration of DWD and ZAMG (Austria). Among other tasks, the adaptions include a regionalization of the selection of relevant weather regimes, optimal fragmentation of the target region into climatic sub-zones and correction of precipitation class frequencies.
The presentation will refer to the progress of the adaption process. In doing so the quality of downscaled climate projections is shown for a test ensemble in comparison with existing projections of the Austrian ÖKS15 data set and EURO-CORDEX.
Reference: Kreienkamp, F., Paxian, A., Früh, B., Lorenz, P., Matulla, C.: Evaluation of the empirical–statistical downscaling method EPISODES. Clim Dyn 52, 991–1026 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4276-2
How to cite: Schellander-Gorgas, T., Lorenz, P., Kreienkamp, F., and Matulla, C.: Empirical statistical downscaling with EPISODES in an Alpine territory, EMS Annual Meeting 2021, online, 6–10 Sep 2021, EMS2021-73, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2021-73, 2021.
