Occurrence, Variability and Trends in Snowfall and Rainfall under the background of air temperature and Atmospheric Circulation in Poland

The reaction of precipitation on current warming is ambiguous and differs depending on the region. Particular precipitation phases were found to respond more significantly to recent climate change in many areas located in North America, Asia, Europe and mountains. Since precipitation is an important factor in many environmental processes, trends in its occurrence and totals may trigger various changes in the Earth system and affect life.

This study aims to recognize the influence of air temperature and atmospheric circulation on the occurrence, variability and trends in precipitation phase indices. We used sub-daily data (every 3h) on air temperature, precipitation totals, notation of weather phenomena in the form of a current (ww) and past weather (W1W2) and cloud types from 38 synoptic stations located in Poland. Moreover, we used various teleconnection patterns to describe macroscale circulation and circulation types to describe regional circulation. Unlike in most studies, precipitation phase was identified based on notation of weather phenomena. Such an approach allowed us to assess a real range of surface air temperature (2m above ground) where snowfall and rainfall occur. Both frequency, totals and quotient of particular precipitation phases were analysed over the period of 1966-2020.  

Our preliminary results showed that each precipitation phase occurred over a wide range of temperatures; however, most snowfall registered during air temperatures far above freezing point (even 6°C) fell during the existence of cumulonimbus, which indicates strong convection. The highest probability of solid precipitation was linked to air advection from the north-eastern sector under the influence of cyclone (ca.15-20%). Mixed precipitation could be most expected during days with a cyclone centre located over Poland (ca. 20%). The highest probability of liquid precipitation (ca. 70%) was most characteristic of the west and north-west advection under the influence of cyclone and during the cyclone centre or trough over Poland.  

High year-to-year variability in the indices of precipitation phases impacted their trends. However, liquid precipitation tended to increase in winter over most of the stations. Mixed precipitation exhibited various trend directions depending on the region in winter and decreasing spring and autumn trends. In transitional seasons, a significant decrease was also found in solid precipitation. Most of these changes were significantly related to changes in air temperature except for solid precipitation in winter. Variability in precipitation phases was also correlated with teleconnection patterns, including NAO (negative correlation with solid precipitation in spring and autumn and liquid precipitation in summer, positive correlation with mixed pre in winter), EA (negative correlation with mixed precipitation in autumn) and SCAND (negative correlation with mixed precipitation in winter).

 

The research performed within the project No. 2017/27/B/ST10/00923, financed by National Science Centre,