Detecting changes in the Western Mediterranean cyclones

Mid-latitude cyclones form an essential part of large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern, and their evolution, intensity, trajectory, and associated weather events (e.g., extreme precipitation, consequent floods, etc.) are all important from a local/regional point of view. In this study, we focus on the Mediterranean region where mid-latitude cyclones are fundamental factors in the weather and climate conditions in the region. Since the Mediterranean region is considered as one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change, this region calls for special attention. To mitigate the effects of future climate change and to develop suitable adaptation strategies it is necessary to have a clear and detailed understanding of Mediterranean cyclones and their characteristics. For this purpose, we selected the western part of the Mediterranean region as our study area. For this target area, we use ECMWF reanalysis data and the historical simulations of global climate models from the CMIP6 project. We started the statistical climatological analysis with locating the potential areas of low pressure systems in the region. Validation is carried out by the comparison between the results of reanalysis and CMIP6-simulation data. Frequency, intensity, and duration changes are assessed. For the analysis, mean sea level pressure and precipitation are considered from 1901 to 2020, with 6-hour temporal resolution and as daily amounts, respectively, in the western Mediterranean region and its vicinity. The study continues with the evaluation of future trends based on different climate scenarios (RCP and/or SSP scenarios upon availability), which represent different anthropogenic impacts and mitigation efforts. The results can serve as valuable input for impact modelers to further detailed analysis, and for decision makers and stakeholders to consider future projected climatic conditions when building the long-term strategies of their specific sectors.