4-9 September 2022, Bonn, Germany
EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts
Vol. 19, EMS2022-444, 2022
EMS Annual Meeting 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Building storylines for applications: what have we learned in the EUCP project?

Fai Fung1,2, Christopher Goddard1, Carol McSweeney1, Tom Crocker1, Dominic Matte3, Andrew Ballinger4, Gabi Hegerl4, Christopher O'Reilly5, Antje Weisheimer6, Karin Van der Wiel7, and Renate Wilcke8
Fai Fung et al.
  • 1Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom of Great Britain – England, Scotland, Wales (fai.fung@metoffice.gov.uk)
  • 2Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
  • 3Physics of Ice, Department of Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
  • 4University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
  • 5University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
  • 6Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
  • 7SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden
  • 8Ouranos, Montreal, Canada

The European Climate Prediction system (EUCP) project aimed to lay the foundation for a future regional climate prediction system for Europe. An important element of this is the role of narrative or storylines approaches in data production and scientific investigation, as well as a user product. We will present the results of our investigations which sought to understand the potential advantages and challenges in developing physically based climate storylines as part of a climate service by addressing the questions

  • What are climate storylines and where are they useful?
  • How could storylines bring together various outputs of EUCP state-of-the-art climate science attempting to reduce uncertainty and complexity in climate projections, and seamlessly combine them with decadal predictions?
  • What are the challenges of producing them as a service?

The body of EUCP work included two case studies of co-producing storylines as a user product, revealing the potential usefulness for applications. These included the heritage and water supply management sectors which are at different stages of adaptation management. We also reflect on the potential of event-based future storylines: one using a convection-permitting model to provide attribution statements for the Copenhagen flooding event in July 2011 and another using large ensembles to construct storylines of the European summer 2018 drought under different pseudo-global warming. Novel scientific studies were also performed which could form the scientific building blocks of climate storylines including an algorithmic clustering approach and approaches to producing more realistic climate variability. Finally, we will present a tool for performing multiple lines of evidence assessments that could aid storylines development.

How to cite: Fung, F., Goddard, C., McSweeney, C., Crocker, T., Matte, D., Ballinger, A., Hegerl, G., O'Reilly, C., Weisheimer, A., Van der Wiel, K., and Wilcke, R.: Building storylines for applications: what have we learned in the EUCP project?, EMS Annual Meeting 2022, Bonn, Germany, 5–9 Sep 2022, EMS2022-444, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2022-444, 2022.

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