Too hot for air conditioning. Increased energy demand during heat waves in Poland.

Climate change observed in recent decades is manifested by an increasing occurrence of extreme meteorological phenomena, which have  impact significantly various sectors of the economy and society. One of the most vulnerable sectors is energy production and distribution.

Over the past 20 years, we have observed a steady increase in the demand for electricity in Poland. It increases both in individual months and for each season of the year. However, it can be seen that the changes are not identical for winter and summer. In the scale of the whole country, for January the increase in energy consumption between the first and the second decade of the 21^st century is below 10%, while for July it is almost 15%. During the hottest months, energy consumption is already similar to the winter months.

One of the factors analyzed by the authors responsible for such a large change are the more frequent, longer, and more intense heat waves. One of such waves, occurred in 2015, led to limitations in energy supplies to industrial recipients. The aim of the presented study is to estimate the impact of heat waves on the demand for electricity in Poland on a time scale: from hourly and daily to monthly demand. The 20-year time series of hourly electricity consumption in Poland provided by the national operator of the energy grid (Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne) will be compared with a similar time series of meteorological data such as the maximum, minimum, and average daily air temperature and hourly temperature values. Energy consumption during 5 selected heat waves from 2002 to 2021 will also be analyzed. This will allow to assess whether the limitations in energy supplies may repeat in the future and what are the meteorological factors behind them.

Acknowledgements: This research has been funded by the National Science Center of Poland under the grant number: 2018/31/B/HS4/03223