Unpacking the logics of physical climate storylines

The Physical Climate Storyline (PCS) approach is increasingly recognized by the research community as a tool to produce and communicate decision-relevant climate risk information. While PCS is generally understood as a single concept, different methodologies are applied according to the aims and purposes of the approach. To unpack this diversity of detail, this paper gives an overview of the key methodological practices and assumptions, i.e. the “logics” that are associated with variants of the PCS approach. We analyze physical climate storylines as both a product and a process and recognize that (i) those who build the storylines (e.g. physical climate scientists, interdisciplinary groups of scientists, or transdisciplinary groups of scientists and societal stakeholders) and (ii) the purpose for which these storylines are built (e.g. improving scientific understanding or communicating information) influence key features of the methodology (process) and hence key features of the storyline (product). We note that PCS can have cognitive aims, i.e. aims related to the pursuit of knowledge and hence promote cognitive values, and non-cognitive aims, i.e. the practical, social and ethical aims of the knowledge that is produced, and hence promote non-cognitive values. We then examine how value judgements are implicitly or explicitly included in the aims and construction of PCS. We conclude the discussion by suggesting that the PCS approach can further mature (i) in the way it incorporates the narrative element, in particular in trans- and multi-disciplinary contexts, (ii) in the way it incorporates value judgments, and (iii) in the way that the evidence chosen to build PCS constrains what is considered plausible.