User adapted climate projections

There is a distinct need for climate information and climate projections in society. These needs cover a wide range of use from key information on expected changes to the full range of projections in terms of data.

In climate research the realization that one needs a wide range of projections based on combinations of different models (e.g. combinations ofGCM and RCM) to create a wide ensemble of futures is necessary. This leads to enormous streams of data. In Norway, the new set of national projections will include about 550 simulations with various combinations of emission scenarios, variables, model combinations, bias adjustments methods, hydrological models etc.

As stated above there is a wide range of needs from simple requests to complex impact modelers capable of using the full model output. The Norwegian Centre for Climate Services (NCCS) today serves either end of this spectrum fairly well. NCCS produce Climate fact sheets on a county level, which serve the simpler needs, but also provide the full model ensemble. But the interim users that need more than simple summaries and are incapable of using the full ensemble are not served sufficiently. The result can be, as was shown at EMS 2022, basically to use a single realization for future climate in impact research, despite the access to large ensembles.

Climate services, as e.g. provided by NCCS, should provide user-adapted pre-selection of climate projections; so-called representative projections. To do this in the right way, user needs should be better understood and appropriately grouped. At this stage NCCS do not provide such representative projections, but we would like to raise the discussion on how to go forward.