Worldwide Köppen Geiger Climate classification changes projections (SSP2-2.6 and SSP5-8.5)
- 1Natural Hazards Research Center (NHRC.ipt), Instituto Politécnico de Tomar, Quinta do Contador, Estrada da Serra, Tomar, 2300-313, Portugal (c.andrade@ipt.pt)
- 2Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences. Institute for Innovation, Capacity Building, and Sustainability of Agrifood Production (Inov4Agro), Vila Real, 5000-801, Portugal
- 3Physics Department, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD) 5000‒801 Vila Real, Portugal
Climate strongly influences not only the distribution and abundance of species on Earth but also the distribution of ecosystem types. Since the climate is defined as a long-term pattern of weather conditions at a given location or region both the distribution and evolution of its conditions are considered highly relevant. The Köppen-Geiger climate classification is based on temperature and precipitation and has been widely used to assess climate shifts worldwide.
In this study, high spatial resolution (10 min) monthly precipitation (in mm) and maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures (in °C) gridded datasets were retrieved from the WorldClim data website. The Köppen-Geiger climate classification was then computed worldwide between 1970 and 2000 (historical baseline) and between 2041 and 2060 under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) SSP2‒2.6 and SSP5‒8.5; from an ensemble of 14 Global Climate Models (GCMs).
Results point out an overall decrease of type E (Polar) around 4.6% for ET (Tundra) and 3.8% for EF (Icecap) under both SSPs. A noticeable decrease of type Dfc (Temperate subpolar oceanic) 7.34% and 7.53% under SSP2-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively is also projected. Climate types Csa (Temperate with hot summer) and Cfb (Temperate oceanic with warm summer) are also projected to decrease by about 1% under both SSPs. Conversely, in decreased order of magnitude, types Dfa (Continental humid with hot summer, 6%), Cfa (Temperate humid subtropical, 2.8 and 2.9%), BWh (Hot desert, 1.4%), BSh (Hot semi-arid or steppe, 1.3%), As (Tropical, 1.2%), Dwa (Monsoon-influenced hot-summer humid continental, 1%) are projected to increase under SSP2‒2.6 and SSP5‒8.5, respectively. The projected changes mainly in locations like Siberia (reduction of type E areas, for example), will have a detrimental effect on the environment since the melting of the permafrost will release methane a powerful greenhouse gas, thus contributing to global warming.
Acknowledgments: This research was funded by National Funds by FCT ‒ Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UIDB/04033/2020.
How to cite: Andrade, C., A. Santos, J., and Fonseca, A.: Worldwide Köppen Geiger Climate classification changes projections (SSP2-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-336, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-336, 2023.
