Projections of wind energy potential in Portugal assessed with CMIP6 simulations

Wind energy fluxes over Portugal and the nearby Atlantic Ocean were estimated under an IPCC future socioeconomic scenario (IPCC SSP5-8.5) for the 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 periods, using wind speed data from WRF 6 km regional simulations. CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) global model ensemble simulations were also used to assess future anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic large-scale circulation, through kinetic energy and sea level pressure data. Projections show a winter southward displacement of the mid-latitude jetstream, along with a northward displacement during spring, summer, and autumn, which leads to a summer strengthening of the northern winds along the northwestern Iberian coast. Moreover, offshore the northwest coast of Portugal and in the Serra da Estrela mountain range, a 25% to 50% increase in the summer wind power density (WPD) should occur in 2046–2065, and up to more than 100% in 2081–2100. This is also seen in the CMIP6 global projections. In 2046–2065, the WPD’s daily variability and extreme values should increase offshore northwestern Portugal during winter, spring and summer. During autumn, extreme WPD event intensity should decrease. Furthermore, the WPD’s inter-annual variability should increase offshore the northwest coast, and decrease along the central western and southern coasts.

 

Acknowledgments:

This work was co-funded by FEDER (European Fund for Regional Development), under the project ATLANTIDA – Platform for the monitoring of the North Atlantic Ocean and tools for the sustainable exploitation of the marine resources (NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000040). This work was also funded by National Funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UIDB/04033/2020.