Unprecedented but not unexpected: A case study of the European Flood disaster 2021 in Luxembourg using a value chain approach.

The European Flood disaster caused widespread devastation across national borders between the 14-15^th  July 2021 with an estimated total damage of EUR 32 billion. The disaster brought human suffering to the communities hardest hit with hundreds of reported casualties in western Germany and eastern Belgium. Serious doubts about the efficacy of Early Warning Systems (EWSs) were raised by scientists, politicians and flood victims. The response to the hazard was largely delayed and deficient in terms of warning dissemination to vulnerable groups. Institutionally, the disaster was often deemed unpredictable and extraordinary by decision-makers. However, knowledge risk on the predictability of the hazard has since demonstrated that, precursor signs of a major flood event were detected by the EFAS almost a week ahead of the event. Signs of a potential extreme hydrometeorological event were identified by July 10^th by ECMWF’s Extreme forecast Index (EFI). The DWD accurately forecasted the potential for an extraordinary precipitation event at least 48 hours in advance in Germany and in neighbouring affected countries. Despite initial uncertainties related to precise prediction of total rainfall amounts, this was a well forecasted hazard and not unexpected. In the Aftermath of the disaster,  Germany and in Belgium were faced with investigations against neglect of officials during the floods and manslaughter accusations over flood deaths. Meanwhile, Luxembourg, a small country nestled between the most affected regions of Germany and Belgium respectively went largely unnoticed and questions related to the flood response mostly unanswered. The paper will focus on Luxembourg, addressing knowledge gaps relating to the existing disaster management mechanisms and policies in place during the event. Preliminary research on the existing disaster management mechanisms and policies in place will examine Luxembourg’s conceptualisation of what EWSs are and how they performed during the flood event in 2021. Aspects of people-centred EWSs (Risk Knowledge, Monitoring and Warning, Warning Dissemination and Communication, Response Capability) will be considered. A systems thinking approach will enable for a detailed timeline of events related to the functioning of EWSs. The main objective is the exploration of the complex links and dynamics involved in the flow of information during critical phases of disaster management. The case study questionnaire made available by the WMO WWRP Value Chain Framework Project will act as a guide to extract and conceptualise information flows. Expected outcomes are the identification of potential shortcomings and strengths of the system. The absence of a universal definition for EWSs and their place within disaster management frameworks highlights the need for future research of disaster risk in the context of extreme events. Root causes leading to gridlocks in currently operational EWSs are non-linear and call for integrated disaster risk research approach.