Analysis of Western Mediterranean cyclones and their precipitation zones

The weather and climate conditions of the Mediterranean region is greatly influenced by mid-latitude cyclones. The region is considered as one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change, and Mediterranean cyclones and their characteristics might change in the future. We selected the western part of the Mediterranean region as our study area. In this area we aim to identify cyclones and get an understanding of their characteristics on the basis of ECMWF reanalysis data and the historical simulations of global climate models from the CMIP6 project. In the study we identify the potential areas of low pressure systems based on mean sea level pressure, with temporal resolution of 6 hours, and then determine their trajectories. Mediterranean cyclones affect other parts of Europe, including Hungary and its vicinity. We aim to analyze what portion of the annual precipitation is connected to Mediterranean cyclones and their frontal systems, and how it will change in the future. For this purpose, we use precipitation data from the above-mentioned databases. This study is focused on the present and historical conditions. Our findings are validated by comparing the results of reanalysis and CMIP6-simulation data. The study continues with the evaluation of future trends based on different climate scenarios (RCP and/or SSP scenarios upon availability), which represent different anthropogenic impacts and mitigation efforts. The results can serve as essential input for further impact studies, and then for decision makers and stakeholders when building the long-term strategies of their corresponding sectors.

Acknowledgements: The study contributes to the COST CA19109 action (MEDCYCLONES). Research leading to this study has been supported by the following sources: the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Fund (under grants K-120605 and K-129162), and the National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change (RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00014).