The way towards impact based warnings in Norway

Several changes have been made in Norway over the last five years. The warnings are now issued in both Norwegian and English, and include color/warning level, advises, expected impacts, illustrations and probability information. The CAP format is used and warning dissemination is also made available through a broader range of media and specifically in social media channels. The warnings also include wording regarding impacts and wanted behavior.

MET Norway is strongly involved in risk assessments regarding probabilities of weather exceeding given thresholds i.e. traditional forecasting, and now routinely participates in video conferences with important contingency actors on incident handling. Verification reports are also written regularly after orange and red warnings, and a weekly report of the issued warnings and their impacts are made.

Gradually more phenomena have been included in the warning service by expert teams (meteorologists specialized on a certain phenomenon), based on feedback on user needs as well as the effects of a changing Norwegian climate. Flash-floods are an example of a phenomena that has occurred more often in recent years with a lot of damage and impact on transportation and other sectors.

Even though the thresholds for the warnings are still meteorologically based, they are based on return-values and/or discussed with large user-segments as the road-authorities, seen in the perspective of expected impacts. Norway is a country with a lot of mountain roads so to warn the different drivers about possible problems or a closed road is of large socio-economic importance.

A lot of the impacts and advice used are based on dialogue with relevant user groups. In the presentation the weather warning process and service in Norway will be shown and a glimpse into our plans to even improve it more.