The impacts of climate change on the Hungarian wines

Global warming has a significant impact on global food production, including grapes used for winemaking. European vineyards, in particular, are at risk due to changing climatic conditions affecting the grapevine growth cycle, disease outbreaks, and extreme weather conditions.

In the current research, we use the bioclimatic Huglin-index over all 22 wine regions in Hungary to assess the observed heat sums available for grapes, which correlates with sugar content (highly) and yields (significantly). Furthermore, we analyse the spring frosts after the vegetation period started affecting blooming, the heat stress over summer heatwaves affecting grape quality, and other minor climatic conditions as well. For this matter, high-resolution and homogenized daily observations are used from 1971 covering the Carpathian Basin. Results suggest that in the last 50 years, already a 27% increase was detected on average in the heat sums available for grapes, which has already started to have an impact on changing the varieties of grapes in some regions.

For the future, the Euro-CORDEX regional climate simulations offer valuable insights into expected changes in climatic patterns in Europe. These changes of the less-mitigation RCP4.5 and non-mitigation RCP8.5 scenarios are likely to result in earlier ripening, lower acidity, increased alcohol content, and higher susceptibility to pests and diseases, leading to reduced yields and smaller berries due to water stress. With immediate mitigation of RCP2.6 scenario, adaptation strategies could be avoided, such as selecting heat-tolerant grapes, changing of cultivation management, or changing vineyard locations to cooler climates. However, these measures require substantial investment and may not be feasible for all wine producers.