Spatial uncertainty of codling moth biofix caused by adverse weather events

Meteorological conditions significantly impact the biofix, i.e., the time of the first flight of the first overwintering generation of codling moth (Cydia pomonella). In general, the flight activity of codling moths is influenced by a combination of temperature, humidity, and light duration and intensity, while precipitation and strong wind, particularly wind gusts, can stop insects from flying. Our research also considered the impact of atmospheric pressure on codling moth flight. 

Data describing biofix used in this study come from the codling moth monitoring in the framework of the PIS observing system. For sixteen locations during the 2012-2022 period, only 101 data sets were analyzed for the locations with the same traps and female pheromones. Since the traps were located in production orchards, to avoid the impact of insecticides on possible errors in the first detection of adults, only locations with a high insect population (with over 100 adults per trap during the season) were selected. Counting is performed daily from the beginning of April each year. Meteorological data for the study are provided from two sources: a) the PIS network of automated weather stations located in the orchards (air temperature and humidity, precipitation), and b) the synop reports from the synoptic stations (atmospheric pressure and wind gust).

Our research aims to measure biofix's uncertainty caused by adverse weather conditions (from the codling moth point of view) or events. Starting backward from when an adult is found in the trap, we analyzed the presence of weather conditions that can affect codling moth flight. As a measure of uncertainty, we use the days between trap ketch day and the last day before that when weather conditions allowed adults to fly.