Solar influence on Arctic Oscillations

The Arctic Oscillations (AO) are connected with various regional and global climatic events. These oscillations are important to study recent climate change and to improve our knowledge about the dynamics of climatic disasters. The main sources of these oscillations are the influences of global warming, solar activity and cosmic rays on climatic variations. The solar activity affects climatic processes by the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) variations, solar wind and solar magnetic field. The variations of solar magnetic field are connected with the asymmetrical distribution of sunspots around the solar equator. These variations modulate heliosphere, geomagnetic field and galactic cosmic rays, whose influence on climate oscillations depends on ozone production in high latitudes. The solar influence on Arctic Oscillations are analyzed by centennial time series of TSI and North-South (N-S) solar asymmetry. The time series of Arctic Oscillation since 1850 are combined by data, prepared by David W. J. Thompson with the data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis after 1958. The combined Arctic long time series are analyzed by the Method of Partial Fourier Approximation (PFA) and compared with solar cycles in several narrow frequency bands. In addition, time series from 20th Century Reanalysis V3 dataset of surface monthly means air temperature inside the North polar circle are analyzed and compared with solar data. Various common solar and atmosphere cycles in narrow frequency bands are detected, whose periodicity is between 3 and 80 years. The mean variations of atmosphere data are determined by averaging in moving 2-year window. The AO and temperature time series have positive trends after 1960, where the rate of temperature rise is 0.107 degree per year since 1988. The solar influence on AO variations is dominated by the N-S solar asymmetry, and this points out to the important role of cosmic rays and geomagnetic field on climatic cycles. These results can help to divide natural solar from anthropogenic effect in recent global warming and to improve scenario of future climate change.