UP3.4 | Paleoclimatology and historical climatology

The exceptional amplitude and rate of warming recorded at global, hemispherical and regional scales within contemporary instrumental records should be placed in the context of longer-term multi-centennial and millennial climate variability in order to both assess its uniqueness and better understand the mechanisms that contribute to the background of natural climate variability. Systematic meteorological measurements only span over a relatively short time interval. Thus, documentary evidence and natural climate proxies are used for the reconstruction and understanding of longer term past climate variability.

This session welcomes presentations related to various topics related to this frame:
• early instrumental meteorological measurements, their history and use for the long-term series
• documentary evidence and its features (advantages, disadvantages limits)
• natural climate proxies and its features (advantages, disadvantages, limits)
• methodological improvements and analysis of climate reconstruction approaches both from documentary evidence and natural climatic proxies
• results of climate reconstructions over different regions based on various climatic sources
• hydrological and meteorological extremes (e.g. floods, hurricanes, windstorms, tornadoes, hailstorms, frosts) and their human impacts in relation to climate variability beyond the instrumental period.
• climate modelling of the last 2K and comparison of model outputs with reconstructed/observed climatological data
• past impacts of climate variability on natural processes and human society
• past and recent perception of the climate and its variability
• history of meteorology and meteorological and climatological knowledge
• discussion of natural and anthropogenic forcings as well as recent warming at global, regional and local scales in a long-term context.

Including Tromp Foundation Travel Award to Young Scientists
Convener: Rudolf Brazdil | Co-conveners: Ricardo García-Herrera, Fidel González-Rouco
Orals
| Tue, 05 Sep, 11:00–16:00 (CEST)|Lecture room B1.08
Posters
| Attendance Tue, 05 Sep, 16:00–17:15 (CEST) | Display Mon, 04 Sep, 09:00–Wed, 06 Sep, 09:00|Poster area 'Day room'
Orals |
Tue, 11:00
Tue, 16:00

Orals: Tue, 5 Sep | Lecture room B1.08

Chairperson: Rudolf Brazdil
11:00–11:15
|
EMS2023-584
|
UP3.4
|
Onsite presentation
Félix García-Pereira, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, Norman Julius Steinert, Philipp de Vrese, Johann Jungclaus, Stephan Lorenz, Stefan Hagemann, Elena García-Bustamante, and Pedro José Roldán-Gómez

Observational studies based on borehole temperature profiles provide estimates of the land component contribution to the terrestrial energy budget to be 5 %, while CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) based estimates scale it down to 2 %. This discrepancy might have sensitive implications for the anthropogenically-driven energy surplus partition between the different components. At least part of this difference is likely due to state-of-the-art Land Surface Models (LSMs) in current Earth System Models (ESMs) being too shallow, thus constraining land heat uptake.

Séneca, a 2100-year-long fully-coupled forced simulation (Past2k + historical period + SSP585 future scenario, P2k+) using version 1.2 of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2-LR) with a deep BBCP (1417 m) is used to assess the behavior of subsurface temperatures and heat storage at long-term scales. It was run using Tier 3 forcing protocol defined in Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 4 (PMIP4) within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Results show that Séneca land heat uptake by the end of the historical period is 4 times higher than for a P2k+ PMIP4- CMIP6 standard (about 10 m) simulation, also well above estimates provided by CMIP6 models. However, deepening the BBCP had no effect on surface temperature variability. This finding provides a strong basis for the use of a one-dimensional conductive forward model to obtain more reliable estimates of land heat uptake from complementary surface temperature sources, such as gridded observational datasets and reanalysis products. Furthermore, it enables the correction of shallow land surface model-based CMIP6 heat uptake estimates. The values obtained from this new approach (9-14 ZJ in 1971-2018) are in close agreement with the values derived from the MPI-ESM deep simulation (10 ZJ), but still below the last borehole-based estimates (19-25 ZJ).

How to cite: García-Pereira, F., González-Rouco, J. F., Melo-Aguilar, C., Steinert, N. J., de Vrese, P., Jungclaus, J., Lorenz, S., Hagemann, S., García-Bustamante, E., and Roldán-Gómez, P. J.: Land heat uptake: from Last Millenium proxy and model simulations to observational and CMIP6 products, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-584, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-584, 2023.

11:15–11:30
|
EMS2023-76
|
UP3.4
|
Onsite presentation
David Gallego, Ricardo García-Herrera, Elsa Mohino, Teresa Losada, and Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca

Coastal upwelling is a process in which sea water from intermediate depths emerges along the west coast of continents in response to the intensity of the alongshore component of the wind. These areas are economically relevant as upwelled water is rich in nutrients, creating regions of great interest for fisheries.
Quantifying upwelling intensity at multidecadal to secular time scales is quite difficult. Upwelling is typically evaluated with indices based on sea surface temperatures, a variable that at the spatial scale required, inevitably makes use of satellite retrievals. Evidently, indices based on this method are limited to the satellite era. An alternative approach makes use of the ultimate driver of the upwelling: the wind velocity. This is typically done by using reanalysis products, a kind of data that in open ocean, strongly relies on wind observations taken from the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) database. However, during the last decade, it has been suggested that at multidecadal scale, due to the changes in the observations methods, ICOADS’ velocities over the oceans could be biased toward increasing values, resulting in unrealistic trends in any wind-derived climate index.
In this work we bypassed these problems disregarding the wind velocity field and making exclusively use of in-situ wind direction observations to compute a so-called “Directional Upwelling Index” (DUI). This kind of “directional” indices can be tuned to measure the persistence of the alongshore winds at the coast and therefore, they are directly related to the presence of upwelling favourable conditions. As the wind direction observation was routinely taken by sailing ships traveling between Europe and Asia circumnavigating Africa since long ago, our DUI can be used to track the history of the upwelling in parts of the African coasts since the first half of the 19th century, avoiding any problem related to possible biases on the wind velocity. This is a period much longer than that covered for traditional upwelling indices.
We have computed DUIs for several areas along the west African coast. In general, we have not found consistent long-term trends, although the results are dependent on the specific area analysed. At the Senegal-Mauritania latitude, the upwelling intensity has been very variable during the last two centuries and there is strong evidence of a large shift in the upwelling intensity that occurred around 1900. Further north, at the Canaries latitude, we found that the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability mode seems to control a significant part of the upwelling variability at decadal scales, resulting in an alternating change in the sign of upwelling trends computed over short periods. This could explain the contradictory results currently found in the bibliography at the time of interpreting the upwelling trends based on short series. 

How to cite: Gallego, D., García-Herrera, R., Mohino, E., Losada, T., and Rodríguez-Fonseca, B.: A documentary proxy for coastal upwelling, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-76, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-76, 2023.

11:30–11:45
|
EMS2023-574
|
UP3.4
|
Onsite presentation
Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Jason Smerdon, and Félix García-Pereira

The climate of the Last Millennium (LM) was characterised in many regions by long periods of warmer and cooler conditions, like the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ca. 950-1250 CE) and the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1450-1850 CE). These changes in temperatures can be linked to changes in the Earth’s energy balance, being the solar and volcanic activity the main drivers during the pre-industrial period. Even if the MCA and LIA are typically defined in terms of temperatures, reconstructions of the hydroclimate conditions from regions of North America, Europe, Northern and Central Africa, Northern and Central South America, and Central and Eastern Asia also show relevant changes during these periods, suggesting a large-scale impact on the hydroclimate.

To analyse these large-scale changes in the hydroclimate, and whether similar changes also extend to other periods of the LM outside the MCA and the LIA, an exhaustive compilation of all the available reconstruction-based and model-based sources providing information about the hydroclimate of the LM has been considered, including the Drought Atlases for Europe (OWDA), North America (NADA), Asia (MADA), and Mexico (MXDA), the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA), the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR), and model simulations from the Community Earth System Model - Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6).

This analysis has shown large-scale changes in the hydroclimate of the LM, particularly relevant in tropical areas around the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), in the area of influence of the Northern (NAM) and Southern Annular Modes (SAM), and in the Indian Monsoon region, extending from the Middle East to Southeast Asia. The use of several reconstruction-based products allowed the identification with a robustness assessment of those regions more impacted by hydroclimatic changes, while the comparison between reconstruction-based products and model simulations from different ensembles allowed an assessment of the contributions of external forcing and internal variability on the hydroclimate of each region.

How to cite: Roldán-Gómez, P. J., González-Rouco, J. F., Smerdon, J., and García-Pereira, F.: Large-scale changes in the hydroclimate of the Last Millennium from reconstructions and simulations, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-574, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-574, 2023.

11:45–12:00
|
EMS2023-586
|
UP3.4
|
Online presentation
Qing Pei

During the Qing Dynasty (1644–1911AD), there were more migrants toward southern coastal China, which contributed to the enough records for empirical analysis. In the meantime, the Qing period of China overlapped with Little Ice Age (LIA, 1400–1900AD), a period of abnormal climate with prolonged cooling and persistent hydroclimatic anomalies. Therefore, under this climatic background, the work to reconstruct the typhoon in southern coastal China will help to understand the linkage between natural disasters and abnormal climatic conditions, which has been insufficiently examined so far. 

To reconstruct the typhoon along the southern coastal regions in Qing China, both narrative and quantitative methods will be used. Based on the content of records, the typhoon occurrence will be identified. Furthermore, the consequence of typhoon event will be used to identify the strength of typhoon. Then, the occurrence and strength of past typhoon will be digitized and reconstructed based on the historical records. According to the digitized information, statistical methods and Geographic Information System (GIS) will enable spatiotemporal analysis on those numerical datasets.  

I will finally discuss the possibility to adopt a digitization approach for typhoon reconstruction. Current methods usually make use of natural archives/proxies and thus cannot fully consider the special features of archives of societies, although environmental studies should be guided by humanities. Therefore, I would like to develop some new digitization methods, such as text recognition methods to digitize the descriptive content of historical records into numerical data. It is thus a promising and innovative attempt to adopt a Machine Learning approach to recognize, digitize, and quantify the historical records, including the occurrence, duration, and severity of typhoon. 

How to cite: Pei, Q.: Digitization and reconstruction of typhoon along the southern coastal regions in Qing China, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-586, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-586, 2023.

12:00–12:15
|
EMS2023-182
|
UP3.4
|
Online presentation
Takehiko Mikami

In Japan, diaries that record daily weather conditions since the 18th century have been kept in various parts of the country. The winter weather distribution in the Japanese archipelago is characterized by a north-south extension of the mountain ranges, with the Sea of Japan side having more snow days and the Pacific side having more sunny days. On the other hand, when temperatures are higher in winter, precipitation is more likely to be rain, and when temperatures are lower, it is more likely to be snow. Therefore, by obtaining a linear regression equation based on the correlation between the ratio of the number of snowfall days to the total number of precipitation days in winter and the average temperature for the period when meteorological observation records are available (since 1879), it is possible to reconstruct long-term temperature variations from the snowfall ratio obtained from diary weather records in historical periods. Based on this principle, we attempted to reconstruct winter temperatures in Nagasaki since 1700. Fortunately, Nagasaki has records of early meteorological observations by Dutch medical doctors from 1840 to 1860, before the start of official meteorological observations, which can be used to verify the reconstructed temperatures. The results show that winter temperatures in Nagasaki tended to be lower in the period from about 1700 to 1840, but warmed temporarily in the 1850s and 1860s, and then remained lower again until about 1950. The temperature reconstructions for 1840-1860, when the reconstructed and observed temperatures overlap, are almost coincident, demonstrating that the winter temperature reconstructions based on snowfall ratios are mostly accurate.

How to cite: Mikami, T.: An attempt to reconstruct winter temperatures over the past 300 years from snowfall ratios based on diary weather records, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-182, 2023.

12:15–12:30
|
EMS2023-177
|
UP3.4
|
Onsite presentation
Mika Ichino, Kooiti Masuda, and Takehiko Mikami

The impact of climate change on human society has been a significant issue in historical studies and is also vital for future adaptation to climate change. To understand climate change before the start of meteorological observations and its devastating impact on societies in the past, the spatial patterns of climate variations must be reconstructed with a higher temporal resolution than those provided by the annual data. Japan has a large volume of records, including those related to daily weather conditions from the 17th to 19th centuries, which can help with this reconstruction.

This study applied the method previously developed by Ichino et al. (2001) for estimating solar radiation from the weather records of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) to those collected from historical diaries. Adjusting the classification of descriptions from historical diaries, which are recorded in various expressions, allowed for their application in the method constructed from the current JMA weather descriptions. We estimated solar radiation for 1720–1912 in Japan based on the weather descriptions recorded in historical diaries from Tokyo, pertaining to the Little Ice Age. We validated the estimation compared to solar radiation estimated from the JMA-observed sunshine duration. The reconstruction was combined with the estimation from sunshine duration and the observed solar radiation to create the solar radiation time series data for 1720–2022.

The method used in this study successfully reconstructed solar radiation data in an adequate manner for all seasons with a higher temporal resolution, compared to other methods, including the use of proxy data for assessing historical climate variation. In addition, solar radiation is a fundamental factor for not only the energy balance of the Earth but also the hydrological cycle and agricultural productivity. Therefore, this extended reconstruction of time series data could contribute towards discussing climate change and its effects on historical societies. Herein, we discuss the long-term variations of the reconstructed solar radiation data since the 18th century, focusing on its particular effects on famine.

Reference

Ichino M, Sakamoto N, Masuda K, Mikami T (2001) The method for estimating global solar radiation based on weather records-toward the climatic reconstruction in the historical period-. Tenki 48:823–830. (in Japanese)

Keywords

Solar radiation, Historical weather descriptions, Historical diaries, Little Ice Age, Climate change, Japan

How to cite: Ichino, M., Masuda, K., and Mikami, T.: Reconstruction of solar radiation in Tokyo since 1720 based on daily weather records in historical documents, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-177, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-177, 2023.

12:30–12:45
|
EMS2023-79
|
UP3.4
|
Onsite presentation
Garima Singh, Rajmund Przybylak, Przemysław Wyszyński, Andrzej Araźny, and Konrad Chmist

To determine the climate conditions of SW Greenland in the second half of the 18th century, two series of meteorological observations have been used. The first series (Neu-Herrnhut, 1st Sep 1767−22nd Jul 1768) is the oldest long-term series of instrumental measurements of air temperature and atmospheric pressure made by Christopher Brasen (1738−1774). The second (Godthab, Sep 1784−Jun 1792) contains the most significant and reliable data for Greenland for the study period. Observations were made by Danish Reverend Andreas Ginges (1754–1812) using methodology and instruments provided by the Meteorological Society of the Palatinate. Sub-daily or daily data exist for the following periods: Sep 1784−Jun 1785, Jan−Jun 1787, Nov−Dec 1788, Jan 1790−Jun 1792 and are available in the manuscript entitled Astronomiske og meteorologisk Iagttagelser, anstillede i Godthaab i Grønland 1782–1792 and in the society’s yearbook Ephemerides Societatis Meteorologicae Palatinae, which contains data for 1787. All available historical data were quality controlled and corrected prior to being used to calculate daily (MDAT), monthly, seasonal and yearly means. Daily means have been used to calculate less typical climate statistics such as day-to-day temperature variability, thermal seasons, growing degree days (GDD), air thawing index (ATI), positive degree-days (PDD) and air freezing index degree-days (AFI).

            Compared to present day (1991–2020), air temperature in Godthab was, on average, warmer in 1767–68 and colder in 1784–92. In 1767–68, the turn of December to January was exceptionally warm, with positive MDAT reaching even 5 °C. So too was summer significantly warmer than today. On the other hand, in 1784–92, autumn and particularly winter were markedly colder than today, while temperatures in the rest of the year were comparable to present day. The GDD and ATI in each month in the expedition year 1767–68 were equal to or higher than the norm observed in 1991–2020. No important changes were observed for PDD, while AFI was usually lower than the present-day norm. The GDD and ATI in the period 1784–92 usually (except 1787) do not exceed the maximum and minimum values from 1991–2020. The PDD during the cold season (from October to April) in the period 1784–92 is close to the average and minimum PDD in 1991–2020, but the AFI values in 1784–92 are between the average and maximum AFI values calculated for 1991–2020.

The work was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland project No. 2020/39/B/ST10/00653.

How to cite: Singh, G., Przybylak, R., Wyszyński, P., Araźny, A., and Chmist, K.: Climate conditions in SW Greenland in the second half of the 18th century, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-79, 2023.

12:45–13:00
|
EMS2023-135
|
UP3.4
|
Tromp Foundation Travel Award to Young Scientists
|
Onsite presentation
Konrad Chmist, Andrzej Araźny, Rajmund Przybylak, Przemysław Wyszyński, and Garima Singh

The bioclimate in SW Greenland was estimated using two existing series of meteorological observations from stations located in this area: Neu-Hernhut (1st Sep 1767 – 22nd Jul 1768) and Godthab (Jan 1790 – Jun 1792). The first series is the oldest available long-term series of instrumental measurements for this region. Observations of air temperature, atmospheric pressure, and wind direction and force were made twice a day by Christopher Brasen (1738–74) at 8 a.m. and 2 p.m. The second series of measurements covers the period Jan 1784 – Jul 1792, but the lack of bioclimatic utility of the data (the frequent absence of the required wind speed data) limited its use to only the aforementioned 2.5 years. Observations were carried out in accordance with the instructions used by members of the Meteorological Society of the Palatinate, which also provided the necessary tools. Measurements were taken three times a day by the Danish Reverend Andreas Ginges (1754–1812), at 7 a.m., 2 p.m. and 9 p.m. These were included in a manuscript titled Astronomiske og meteorologisk Iagttagelser, anstillede i Godthaab i Grønland 1782–1792 (Det Kgl. Bibliotek in Copenhagen).

In order to present the bioclimatic conditions in this part of Greenland, the following indices and indicators were used: Wind Chill Temperature (WCT), Insulation Predicted (Iclp), and day-to-day changes in air temperature and atmospheric pressure. The obtained results were compared with contemporary conditions (1991–2020).

Wind Chill Temperature values in the 1789–92 expedition years were lower than at present. In the period January–June of the 1767–68 expedition, the threat to human health was less than at present (by 1.7 °C). For a man in motion (metabolism = 135 Wm-2) the meteorological conditions of SW Greenland show that the required clothing insulation in 1791–92 (Jan–Jun) was similar to the modern period. During 1789–92, an increase of 0.1 clo in the clothing insulation required to obtain thermal comfort was recorded, while in 1767–68, there was a decrease (of 0.2 clo) relative to the period 1991–2020. Day-to-day variation in atmospheric pressure in the category of strong (8–12 hPa) and very strong stimuli (>12 hPa) most often occurred in the winter and spring months. Under this criterion, the expeditions of 1767–68 and 1789–90 were felt more strongly than in the modern period. During the four historical expeditions in the 18th century, there was found, among other things, a slight increase (1–5%) in frequency of occurrence of significant (4–6 °C) and severe stimuli (> 6 °C) according to the day-to-day variation of average diurnal air temperature, as compared against the contemporary period.

The work was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland project No. 2020/39/B/ST10/00653.

How to cite: Chmist, K., Araźny, A., Przybylak, R., Wyszyński, P., and Singh, G.: Bioclimate conditions in SW Greenland in the second half of the 18th century, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-135, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-135, 2023.

Lunch break
Chairperson: Fidel González-Rouco
14:00–14:15
|
EMS2023-67
|
UP3.4
|
Onsite presentation
Rajmund Przybylak, Piotr Oliński, Marcin Koprowski, Elżbieta Szychowska-Krąpiec, Marek Krąpiec, and Radosław Puchałka

Knowledge about the climate before AD 1500 (e.g. for the medieval period) is very limited for many areas of the world, including central Europe. The paper presents the latest state of knowledge on the climate of Poland (Central Europe) in the period 1001–1500. This is achieved using: i) quantitative climate reconstructions published in the past two decades, ii) three new reconstructions exploiting dendrochronological data, iii) one reconstruction based exploiting an updated and augmented database of historical source data on weather conditions. The annual growths of coniferous trees in lowland and upland Poland is highly dependent on the temperature at the end of winter and the beginning of spring, especially February and March. All available reconstructions based on dendrochronological data represent mainly this time of the year. A limited number of reconstructions exist for summer. They are based on biological proxies and documentary evidence, the latter being limited to the 15th century only. In Poland, annual mean temperature correlates with winter temperature more closely than with summer temperature. Winter temperatures can thus be used as annual proxies. The Medieval Warm Period (MWP; also called the Medieval Climate Anomaly) is estimated to have occurred in Poland from the late 12th century to the first half of either the 14th or 15th century. Analysis of all available quantitative reconstructions suggest that the MWP in Poland was comparable to or warmer than the current temperature (1951–2000). The first half of the 11th century (both winter and summer) and the second half of the 15th century (only winter) were the coldest periods in the Middle Ages. Very limited knowledge exists about the wetness of the seasons in Poland. Information is available only from documentary evidence and mainly for the 15th century. Weather notes describing precipitation conditions are most plentiful for summer and then for winter. A very limited number exists for the transitional seasons.

            The greatest climate continentality occurred in the 15th century. Good agreement was found between the reconstructions of Poland’s climate and many reconstructions available for the area of Europe.

The work was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland project No. 2020/37/B/ST10/00710.

How to cite: Przybylak, R., Oliński, P., Koprowski, M., Szychowska-Krąpiec, E., Krąpiec, M., and Puchałka, R.: Poland’s climate in the medieval period, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-67, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-67, 2023.

14:15–14:30
|
EMS2023-80
|
UP3.4
|
Onsite presentation
|
Babak Ghazi, Rajmund Przybylak, Piotr Oliński, Katarzyna Bogdańska, and Aleksandra Pospieszyńska

The frequency, intensity and origin of floods in Poland in the 11th–15th centuries were assessed through analysis of all available documentary evidence. Intensity and origin of floods were estimated using the most well-known and reliable flood classifications for Europe (Barriendos and Coeur 2004; Brázdil et al. 2006; and Lambor 1954). The result indicated 166 flood occurrences in Poland in the 11th–15th centuries. The database of flood records showed that most of the floods in the historical sources were registered for the 15th century (61.4%). In addition, the Silesia and Baltic Coast region and Pomerania were the most vulnerable to flood events, each accounting for 33–34% of instances. The flood intensity estimated based on the Brázdil et al. (2006) classification, revealed that 77 of the recorded floods were above average or supra-regional. In turn, according to Barriendos and Coeur’s (2004) classification, 99 floods were extraordinary. The main cause of floods in Poland during the 11th–15th centuries (almost every second case of flood), was rain and its subtypes. Comparison of the results of this study against the occurrence of floods in neighboring countries (Germany, Czech Republic and Hungary) presents good spatial coherency. The results of this study provide the most comprehensive, updated and state-of-the-art inventory of floods in medieval Poland and should significantly improve the existing knowledge about this phenomenon in Central Europe. The output of this study once again confirms the capacity of documentary evidence to provide valuable and reliable knowledge about flood records for the pre-instrumental period.

The work was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland, project No. 2020/37/B/ST10/00710.

References:

Barriendos, M., & Coeur, D, 2004: Flood data reconstruction in historical times from non-instrumental sources in Spain and France. Systematic, Palaeoflood and Historical Data for the Improvement of Flood Risk Estimation. Methodological Guidelines, edited by: Benito, G. and Thorndycraft, VR, Centro de Ciencias Medioambientales, Madrid, Spain, 29–42.

Brázdil, R., Kundzewicz, Z. W., & Benito, G., 2006: Historical hydrology for studying flood risk in Europe. Hydrological sciences journal, 51(5), 739–764. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.51.5.739.

Lambor, J., 1954: Klasyfikacja typów powodzi i ich przewidywanie. Gospodarka Wodna, 4, 129–131.

How to cite: Ghazi, B., Przybylak, R., Oliński, P., Bogdańska, K., and Pospieszyńska, A.: Documentary evidence of past floods in Poland in the 11th–15th centuries, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-80, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-80, 2023.

14:30–14:45
|
EMS2023-620
|
UP3.4
|
Onsite presentation
Andrea Kiss

Written mainly in German and partly in Latin, the town or chamberlain accounts of historical Pozsony/Pressburg (present-day Bratislava), almost continuously available between 1434-1435 and 1595, contain daily/weekly resolution data on Danube floods, snow and ice cover and occasional data on rainfall, strong winds, (unintentional) fires, cold days and low flows of the Danube. The source provides systematic, annual accounts of incomes and expenses, with only a few years missing: flood and weather related reports were mainly included in the bridge masters’, the ice-cutters’, the ferrymen’s, the town messengers’, and the road and wall maintenance accounts. Furthermore, weather and water-level related information occasionally was also identified in other sections of the accounts, regarding smaller bridges, river transportation, fishing, meadows and hayfields, woods, and other utilities of the nearby island area. Because of the high density of weather and flood data and the available (mainly qualitative) descriptions, it is possible to present a three-scaled index-based quantitative reconstruction of Danube floods and, for some of the years, index reconstructions of winter severity, temperature and precipitation (rainfall, snowfall).

In the presentation, the following major topics are addressed:

  • reconstruction of Danube flood intensity (three-scaled), seasonality, and flood types;
  • (annual, seasonal) number of intensive rainfall and snowfall events and the (three-scaled) precipitation intensity reconstruction;
  • temperature reconstruction, based on three-scaled intensity indices – primarily related to winter;
  • weather extremes and corresponding hazards: strong winds and storms, (unintentional) fires, torrential rains (resulting mass erosion);
  • documented Danube low-flow events, mainly reflecting on prolonged dry periods in the Upper-Danube catchment.

In the final part of the presentation, long-term climate variability processes are discussed in brief. With applying additional information available in the Bratislava area in other contemporary sources such as charters, letters, a diary (of Zsigmond Torda) and other narratives, it is possible to define periods richer in floods, hard winters and reported extreme events. Apart from the period of the early Spörer solar minimum (1430s-1440s), anomalous periods are identified around the turn of the 15th and 16th centuries (ca. 1480s-1510s), in the mid- and late 16th century.

How to cite: Kiss, A.: Weather, winter severity, Danube floods and low flows at Bratislava in 1435-1595:analysis of daily/weekly resolution weather data in the Bratislava town accounts, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-620, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-620, 2023.

14:45–15:00
|
EMS2023-216
|
UP3.4
|
Onsite presentation
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Christian Pfister, Katrin Kleemann, Piotr Olinski, Péter Szabó, and Kateřina Chromá

The Thirty Years’ War in 1618–1648 CE was an armed military conflict in Europe resulting from culminating contradictions between advocates of Roman Catholic and Protestant Churches during reformation time of the 17th century on the one hand and power fight for European political hegemony on the other. This war meant for Europe a time of its great wide-ranging devastation. Based on documentary evidence, the paper characterises climate, weather extremes, economic and socio-political events of that time in Central Europe (nowadays Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Switzerland, Austria and Hungary). Natural climate forcing indicates a gradual climate deterioration during the first half of the 17th century, related to a decrease in solar activity towards the Maunder Minimum and increased volcanic activity starting in the early 1640s. More variable temperature, precipitation and drought patterns (with respect to the 1961–1990 reference period) were typical for 1618–1648 in Central Europe. Seasonal and annual temperatures experienced cooler patterns (except summer), while spring and annual precipitation totals indicated rather drier conditions. These climatic patterns were characterised by the occurrence of many weather extremes, from which particularly late spring and early autumn frosts, heavy rain spells, followed by floods, and intense droughts were reflected in failure of grain, fruit and vine grape harvests as well as low yields of other crops. The years 1627 and 1628 are discussed as possible “years without summer”. Weather extremes caused different human impacts and responses as food shortages (reflecting harvests and prices of grain), famines and epidemics, decline in population etc. Results are discussed in a broader European context with respect to climate, weather extremes and socio-economic impacts.

How to cite: Brázdil, R., Dobrovolný, P., Pfister, C., Kleemann, K., Olinski, P., Szabó, P., and Chromá, K.: Weather and climate and their human impacts during the Thirty Years’ War in Central Europe, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-216, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-216, 2023.

15:00–15:15
|
EMS2023-575
|
UP3.4
|
Onsite presentation
Niklaus Bartlome

It is today undisputed that the volcanic eruption of Tambora in 1815 caused a year without summer in Central and Western Europe, which led to crop failures, inflation, disease and famine. However, little attention has been paid to the teleconnections of the great volcanic eruptions in the 17th century on agriculture and society in early modern Switzerland.

Using a regional example, the present study attempts to examine the climatological and socio-economic effects of those eruptions and the coping strategies that were developed as a result. For several centuries, the Hôpital des Bourgeois de Fribourg meticulously recorded every year all their harvests of crop, wine and dairy products - such as the famous Vacherin cheese - and the number of cattle slaughtered. These primary or secondary climate proxies can be examined for potential climatological effects.

As a public institution, the Hôpital des Bourgeois de Fribourg is strongly linked to the state of Fribourg itself. In addition to these account books, the state archive possesses an extended corpus of sources related to the history of this institution. Essential archive material, such as the Ratsmanuale (protocols) and the Mandatenbücher (regulations), allows us to draw conclusions about the socio-economic impact of the climate crises of the 17th century and the responses of the state and this important social and economic institution. These findings can then be compared with modern climate reconstruction data from the ModE-RA project – presented in a newly developed tool – to better assess the interrelation between the two. In other words, we will see how volcanoes affected Fribourg's viticulture and their Vacherin production as a result of this highly interdisciplinary approach.

How to cite: Bartlome, N.: Wine, vacherin and volcanoes: impacts of the 17th century large volcanic eruptions, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-575, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-575, 2023.

15:15–15:30
|
EMS2023-349
|
UP3.4
|
Onsite presentation
Marián Melo and Miloš Marek

The Diarium of the Jesuit order at Trenčín written in Latin contains systematic daily weather records (with some interruptions) from 8 November 1701 to 10 January 1710. Daily records from this period were kept by two administrators of the Jesuit dormitory (“regens convictus”) Ján Garajský and Juraj Košetič. After the death of Ján Garajský in 1702, the daily weather records are interrupted, so the winter season 1702/03 is without any weather information. With the arrival of his successor Juraj Košetič, such data appear only gradually in the course of 1703. Records related to temperature and precipitation patterns, cloudiness, as well as frequencies of different weather phenomena such as fogs, thunderstorms, strong winds. Information about floods and the occurrence of ice phenomena on the River Váh are also valuable.

In the contribution, we focus on the evaluation of the temperature patterns of individual winter seasons in this period. Winters are defined from December 1 to February 28 (or February 29). For analysis, we selected all daily data describing the temperature state of the weather. Based on this evidence, each day we classified by daily temperature indices (from -3 to +3). Although some winter seasons contain daily weather records for every single day, but not every record specifically relates to a temperature pattern. Out of a total of nine winters during this period, only 6 seasons had more than 70 percent of such daily temperature indices recorded, specifically 1703/04 (73%), 1704/05 (97%), 1705/06 (93%), 1706/07 (86%), 1707/08 (71%) and 1708/09 (81%). From them, the coldest winter season in Trenčín was 1708/09 (with cold temperature pattern), then 1704/05 and 1706/07 (with moderately cold temperature pattern), 1705/06 and 1703/04 (with mild temperature pattern), and the warmest winter season was 1707/08 (with mild temperature pattern). Overall, the coldest month was January 1709, which was also the only very cold month in this ranking. The warmest month was December 1706 with mild temperature pattern.

Like the result of the hard winter of 1708/09 was also the occurrence of ice phenomena (ice cover, ice jam with ice flood later in March) on the River Váh in Trenčín, which are recorded in the Jesuit Diary of this period.

 

Acknowledgment: This work was supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency under the contract No. APVV-20-0374.

 

Keywords: Jesuit Diary, winter, temperature indices, cold, mild, Trenčín, ice phenomena

How to cite: Melo, M. and Marek, M.: Temperature patterns of the winters in the periods from 1703/04 to 1708/09 in Trenčín, Slovakia, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-349, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-349, 2023.

15:30–15:45
|
EMS2023-514
|
UP3.4
|
Onsite presentation
Applicability of Reyger's 18th weather chronicle for Gdańsk (Poland) for analysis of weather, climate and water extremes
(withdrawn)
Janusz Filipiak, Rajmund Przybylak, and Aleksandra Pospieszyńska
15:45–16:00
|
EMS2023-464
|
UP3.4
|
Onsite presentation
Lukáš Dolák and Rudolf Brázdil

Rebellions of peasants against nobility or social order during the 18th–19th centuries in Central Europe were usually the consequences of previous long-term societal problems. Furthermore, the general social dissatisfaction might have been often amplified by negative impacts of climate fluctuation, unfavourable weather or hydrometeorological extremes. Here, we analyse the causes of two outstanding rebellions in 1775 and 1821 in the Czech Lands with respect to climate and weather variability as well as social, economic and political issues. Analysis of both rebellions is allowed based on rich documentary evidence available for the Czech Lands in the studied period (chronicles, weather diaries, grain prices etc.). Temperature and precipitation fluctuations, the occurrence of drought and wet periods, the impacts of the Tambora eruption or changes in grain prices during 1750–1830 were taken into account.  Despite some joint causes of both uprisings (unfavourable weather, poverty, harsh corvée conditions, high taxes), each of both rebellions was characterised by its special reasons. While rainy weather, poor harvest, high grain prices and subsequent famine preceded the 1775 rebellion, the emerging agrarian crisis and sudden grain price fluctuations caused by the Tambora eruption and grain overproduction in 1818 contributed to the 1821 rebellion. The previous results of climate fluctuation will also be completed by recently published datasets and analysed from the new point of view. Moreover, former approaches to studying the causes of both rebellions will be discussed with regard to the modern ones. The results of this study contribute to a better understanding of past negative climate and weather impacts on human society and help to fill the gap in interdisciplinary research.

How to cite: Dolák, L. and Brázdil, R.: An effect of climate fluctuation on the 1775 and 1821 rebellions in the Czech Lands, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-464, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-464, 2023.

Posters: Tue, 5 Sep, 16:00–17:15 | Poster area 'Day room'

Display time: Mon, 4 Sep 09:00–Wed, 6 Sep 09:00
Chairperson: Fidel González-Rouco
P52
|
EMS2023-507
|
UP3.4
Rudolf Brazdil, Kateřina Chromá, Lukáš Dolák, Pavel Zahradníček, Jan Řehoř, Petr Dobrovolný, and Ladislava Řezníčková

Severe weather patterns may directly cause or influence deadly events during various human activities, particularly in the context of recent climate change. The paper investigates weather-related fatalities over the territory of the Czech Republic in the 1921–2020 period. The unique database, created from documentary evidence (particularly newspapers), includes for each deadly event besides weather event also a set of information concerning of the fatality itself and related circumstances. Totally 2,729 detected fatalities during 100 years were associated to weather categories frost (38%), convective storm (19%), flood (17%), fog (11%), snow and glaze ice (8%), windstorm (5%) and other inclement weather (2%). For each individual category a detailed analysis was done. Fatalities, extending over the whole country, had a main maximum in the winter (January) and secondary in the summer (July), corresponding to the occurrence of extreme weather. Deaths were interpreted mainly as direct, caused by freezing to death/hypothermia or drowning, happening in the afternoon and night in open countryside or on rivers and water bodies. Males outnumbered females and adult the categories child and elderly. Hazardous behaviour of victims was more frequent than non-hazardous. Information on fatalities and structure of their characteristics reflects strongly historical milestones of the country, political and socioeconomic changes as well as changes in the life style. Besides important weather effects on the deadliest events, the character of fatality data with weaker temporal coverage in 1945–1961 and 1978–1995 do not allow to clearly prove the effects of long-term climate variability. Detailed knowledge of weather-related fatalities with respect to their spatiotemporal occurrence, structure and characteristics, with a nearly half of them being classified as hazardous behaviour of victims (or culprits of deadly events), offer possibility to learn from these fatality data with the aim to apply appropriate risk communication and contribute to the potential decreasing of fatalities (injuries) during extreme weather events.

How to cite: Brazdil, R., Chromá, K., Dolák, L., Zahradníček, P., Řehoř, J., Dobrovolný, P., and Řezníčková, L.: The hundred-year series of weather-related fatalities in the Czech Republic: Interaction of climate, environment and society, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-507, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-507, 2023.

P53
|
EMS2023-591
|
UP3.4
Elin Lundstad and Hans Olav Hygen

Homogenization of the global historical database (HCLIM)

Instrumental meteorological observations are crucial for the analysis of climate backwards in time to reconstruct climate variations. However, the collection of instrumental data dating back to 1658 allows many of the long climate series to have often been affected by inhomogeneities (artificial shifts) due to changes in measurement conditions (relocations, instrumentation, change in environment, etc.). To deal with this problem, modern homogenization procedures have been used and developed to detect and adjust inhomogeneities. Homogenization in climate research means the removal of non-climatic changes. This presentation describes the homogenization of the early instrumental dataset (HCLIM; https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.940724) of monthly mean temperature time series. New homogenization algorithm validation methodology is assessed here on early instrumental data, and its use to assess the skill of three different algorithms, when applied to early instrumental data. The methods tested were PHA, BART and CLIMATOL. Results and challenges of using these methods on early instrumental data will be shown. From the database that has been created (published January 2023), it has been necessary to clean up the data and at the same time use the data to see what strengths and weaknesses exist with the database. The clean-up has consisted of changing the data format for use for homogenisation, and testing latitude, longitude and meters above sea level and the possibility of obtaining verified data for comparison. You can also see that there is some data that cannot be used for this purpose. Something can be used for completely different purposes, e.g., finding extremes. It has also been a learning process to use these homogenization programs.

How to cite: Lundstad, E. and Hygen, H. O.: Homogenization of the global historical database (HCLIM), EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-591, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-591, 2023.

P54
|
EMS2023-71
|
UP3.4
Andrzej Araźny, Konrad Chmist, Rajmund Przybylak, Przemysław Wyszyński, and Garima Singh

The idea of holding an International Polar Year (IPY) is attributed to Carl Weyprecht, who participated in the Austro-Hungarian polar expedition of 1872–74 that discovered the Franz Josef Land archipelago on August 30, 1873. The experience of this expedition led Weyprecht to conclude that scientific work during expeditions should be based on “identical measuring instruments, identical instructions and for a period of at least one year to collect as many synchronous measurements as possible”. His idea was implemented by the International Polar Commission established in 1879, which organised the 1st International Polar Year from August 1, 1882 to August 31, 1883. Subsequent IPYs were held in 1932/33, 1957/58 and 2007/08. The next IPY is planned for 2032/33. All polar years have significantly improved our knowledge of polar regions, especially the Arctic. This is particularly true of weather and climate conditions.

The aim of this study is to examine the prevailing climatic and bioclimatic conditions in SW Greenland and the eastern coast of Labrador in all the mentioned polar years, and to compare them against each other and against the modern long-term period (1986–2015). To achieve this goal, both instrumental data available in many sources (including those collected by the Moravian Brothers) and data from the twentieth-century reanalysis were used. Instrumental data were taken for SW Greenland from the weather station located at Godthab, and for the east coast of Labrador from Nain (1882/83, 1932/33 and 2007/08) and Hopedale (1957/58) stations due to the lack of data from Nain for that year. Both stations are relatively close to each other and are strongly correlated with each other in terms of climate. Climatic conditions were compared using commonly used statistics such as monthly, seasonal and yearly averages. On the other hand, analysis of the bioclimatic conditions in the study area is based on the following indices and indicators: Wind Chill Temperature (WCT), Insulation Predicted (Iclp) and day-to-day changes of air temperature and atmospheric pressure. For the calculations, sub-daily data from the measurements taken in the middle of the day (1 or 2 pm) have been used. Apparent cold and extent of frostbite risk to the human body were assessed using the WCT. This was created based on thermophysiological experiments and theoretical research in Canada and the United States relating to the influence of temperature and air movement on apparent conditions in winter. Iclp determines the thermal insulation of clothing required for a person to maintain thermal equilibrium in a given set of meteorological conditions. All biometeorological indices  were calculated using BioKlima 2.6 software (https://www.igipz.pan.pl/bioklima-crd.html).

The work was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland project No. 2020/39/B/ST10/00653.

How to cite: Araźny, A., Chmist, K., Przybylak, R., Wyszyński, P., and Singh, G.: Climate and bioclimate conditions in SW Greenland and eastern coast of Labrador during the International Polar Years, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-71, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-71, 2023.

P55
|
EMS2023-335
|
UP3.4
Aleksandra Pospieszyńska and Rajmund Przybylak

Extreme precipitation in Toruń was analysed for the period 1871–2020. The precipitation series was collected from data of the Prussian, German and Polish networks (Archives of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management National Research Institute). Possible deficiencies in the monthly average data were supplemented by the method of constancy of quotients (precipitation) based on data from the station in Bydgoszcz. The correlation of data from Bydgoszcz and Toruń reaches 0.99 and is statistically significant. The precipitation series was then homogenised using AnClim software. Minimum and maximum absolute values were determined for all analysed parameters. Anomalies of averages and monthly, seasonal and annual sums were determined with respect to the reference period 1871–2020. Based on the percentage criterion, months, seasons and years were determined to be extremely dry (<50% of the average sum for the month/season/year, respectively), extremely wet as >150%, and average a 90–110%.

In the period 1871–2020, the average annual precipitation in Toruń amounted to 518.2 mm. In the course of the year, the precipitation totals were highest in July (78.2 mm) and lowest in February (25.1 mm). The variability of rainfall from year to year is clear and significant in selected subperiods, but precipitation in Toruń does not indicate a clear and statistically significant trend. This phenomenon is typical for precipitation in Poland. The occurrence of an extremely dry or wet year is determined primarily by the precipitation of the summer season, which on average accounts for about 40% of annual precipitation. In the case of seasons from 2010 onwards, wetter winters are observed. In the case of other seasons, wetter and drier periods can be indicated, but without a clear long-term trend. Using the percentage criterion, extremely warm, dry periods were identified at the end of the 1930s, in the late 1940s to early 1950s, and in the late 1980s to early 1990s. The beginning of the 1940s can be described as extremely cold and humid, as can the late 1970s to early 1980s.

The research was funded by the National Science Centre, Poland; Project No. 2020/37/B/ST10/00710.

How to cite: Pospieszyńska, A. and Przybylak, R.: Extreme precipitation in Toruń (Poland), 1871-2020, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-335, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-335, 2023.